Well, we got through the Twilight: New Moon predictions without any of the Twilight fans hating me too much, so with that out of the way it is on to the Thanksgiving weekend predictions here at the Reject Report. This weekend we have the expansion of The Fantastic Mr. Fox as well as two new wide releases Old Dogs and Ninja Assassin. These three open Wednesday and I’m going to predict how they will do and look ahead to see what the Friday-Sunday period has in store.
In the end New Moon wound up with a little over $142 million for its weekend opening, and frankly I don’t see how it can be topped this coming week either. Even if it drops 50 percent it makes 71 million. I think the drop will be steeper than that, but I think this still makes it to $50 million this holiday weekend. How the heck are these other movies going to compete with that? Good question. Let’s see if any of these new releases have what it takes to take down our vampire friends.
We’ll start with The Fantastic Mr. Fox, which stars the voices of George Clooney and Meryl Streep and finally goes wide in about 2,000 theaters after being in limited release for two weeks. It’s filmed in stop-motion animation and is based on the Roald Dahl children’s novel about a fox who plans one last raid on these farmers.
I think this film is winning converts all the time, but whether it has the ability to break out of the low-teens is something I wonder about at this stage. I am thinking this will do $12 million this weekend.
Watch the Fantastic Mr. Fox trailer:
Next up we haveNinja Assassin, which is produced by oel Silver and the Wachowski brothers, directed by James McTeigue, and stars Rain, Naomie Harris, Ben Miles and Rick Yune. It’s about this deadly assassin who breaks free from a secret society in order to exact his revenge for a friend’s killing.
My prediction is this will do something in the $15 million range for the weekend and $23 million for five days. I dunno, I’m kind of down on any movie with any involvement from the Wachowskis as far as potential box office is concerned — ever since Speed Racer flopped.
Watch the Ninja Assassin trailer:
Finally we have Old Dogs starring those two old goats Robin Williams and John Travolta. It’s about these two older guys who wind up being in charge of these 7-year-old twins.
This is from Walt Becker the director of Wild Hogs, and when I first heard the title I thought “oh no, not another Wild Hogs.” Really, people thought that movie was the end of civilization as we know it. And it probably isn’t going to be the same movie, anyway, it’s a different subject altogether. But it is the same director, and I am hearing that the reviews from the critics for this effort are HOSTILE. This was down to 8 percent on the Rotten Tomatoes meter, which is terrible! I know there are some people out there who think this can do better than $30 million for the weekend but I wonder about this flick’s ability to do $30 million for the five-day week.
Anyway, I am predicting $26 million for the weekend and $36 million for the five-day period, mainly because of the negative buzz for this movie so far. Not that it stopped Wild Hogs, though, because that one was a big hit.
Watch the Old Dogs trailer:
So that means the vampires will spend another week on top of the box office. That’s what I fully expect. As far as I am concerned this really isn’t much competition for the Twilight gang at all this week. My expected weekend finish:
The Twilight Saga: New Moon $50 million
Old Dogs $26 million
The Blind Side $18 million
Ninja Assassin $15 million
2012 $13 million
The Fantastic Mr. Fox $12 million
Precious $7 million
Disney’s A Christmas Carol $6.5 million
Planet 51 $6.3 million
The Men Who Stare At Goats $2 million
Happy Thanksgiving, you turkeys. That is it for now. We’ll see how much more of a shadow New Moon casts on the competition this weekend with the box office results here at the Reject Report!
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