The Reject Report: TRANSFORMERS is Blowing the Competition Away

Posted by John Cairns (jcairns@filmschoolrejects.com) on July 5, 2007

The fate of Transformers is now known: it is a big, massive, freaking worldwide hit. The question is no longer about whether this movie will be Number One for the week; it’s whether it will be Number One for the year. This movie is already in potential Pirates 3 and Spider-Man 3 territory. The other question now is: when is the sequel!? For Paramount, this is a big money train.

As readers of Film School Rejects know by now, the release of the Michael Bay blockbuster already shattered the record for the biggest Tuesday of all time. Transformers hauled in a record 27.4 million on Tuesday, beating the previous 15.7 mil record held by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest. But a little perspective should be in order here. How many movies ever roll out in wide release on a Tuesday? Very few, quite frankly. Let’s face it, nothing of consequence ever premieres on a Tuesday, historically. So this is a big anomaly to begin with for Transformers to go wide on a Tuesday. So they shattered the Tuesday record. Big deal!

For me, the far more impressive numbers come from Monday and Wednesday. On Monday, Transformers became the top movie in America based only on 8 p.m. preview screenings in 3,000 theaters across the United States, collecting $8.8 million. Think about it: a movie hits Number One on a preview night. That takes a lot of doing.

The Wednesday numbers, also, were much more impressive. Usually Independence Day is a down day for the movies as people enjoy outdoor activities. Not this year. Not only did Transformers do as well as they did on Tuesday, they improved on it. Variety had reported the total box office for Transformers was estimated at $27.9 million, beating the previous Independence Day record set by Spider-Man 2 of $21.9 million. Other reports had the total even higher, at $29 mil. Bottom line, this was the best Fourth of July showing of all time and the best Wednesday non-sequel showing of all time, beating The Passion of the Christ.

The coast is clear for Transformers to basically blow the competition away for the next several days, right into next week. The wide release is in a huge 4,011 cinemas in the United States. The only other new wide-release out there is the buzz-challenged License to Wed, starring Robin Williams. Other than that, it’s the same old holdovers from last week—Ratatouille, Live Free or Die Hard, the sinking Evan Almighty, the horror flick 1408, Michael Moore’s documentary Sicko, and other flicks that people have probably already seen. Nothing new is on the horizon from the studios until Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix comes out on Wednesday of next week. We are looking at a situation, then, where Transformers has no real competition at the theaters for the next several days, at least. This movie is going to be the Number One movie in the United States for nine days in a row, which is quite an achievement given how things have gone in Hollywood.

The best estimates earlier this week had pointed to a $125 million haul for Transformers in the United States by the end of the weekend, but I think the grand total is going to end up higher. If this movie keeps on doing $27 million a day, or even just $25 mil, then this movie is on a pace to get up to $140 or maybe even $145 million by Monday morning. Really, Transformers is a money train.

On a side note, the critics have turned against this movie in the last few days. Transformers has plunged to 59% at Rotten Tomatoes after scoring in the low-80s on the weekend. It’s gone from fresh to rotten in just a few days. Not that anyone cares, really, the film seems critic-proof.

Despite all the buzz and hoopla about Transformers, there are other movies out this week, such as License to Wed. What? You didn’t know this has opened, too? Neither does the rest of the United States, which is exactly the problem. It opened on July 3, the same day as Transformers. Unfortunately, everyone at the theater was in line to see Transformers, not this flick.

License to Wed stars Robin Williams as a clergyman who puts people who are looking to get married through a notoriously challenging premarital counseling school, where relationships are put to the test before the marriage is even performed. The young couple in the movie is played by Mandy Moore and John Krasinski from The Office. Unfortunately, just because you star in a TV show called The Office doesn’t mean a freaking thing as far as movie quality is concerned these days, because Rotten Tomatoes has this movie at 14%!! I have to say, this is a pretty dismal critical reaction. The box office has been even worse. This movie got buried Tuesday with a take of $2.2 million, behind Transformers, Ratatouille and Live Free or Die Hard, and barely ahead of Evan Almighty. A fourth-place flop finish for Robin Williams.

It did a little better on Wednesday, but not much better at $2.9 million. It sure is strange. For a guy with a reputation for being a zany comedian, Robin Williams always seems to do better in movies where he takes on a dramatic role. But these comedies he stars in usually end up being piece-of-junk flops. Funny.

A brief word about Ratatouille—the weekend opening may not have been as strong as Disney-Pixar would have liked, but the movie’s Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday grosses were apparently the biggest ever for a Pixar picture. This indicates that this movie should not take such a steep week-to-week drop that other Number One flicks have suffered this year.

My predictions for this coming weekend:

Back Monday with the final totals from this weekend and a look ahead to Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, due to hit theaters next Wednesday.

Read more articles by John Cairns