The Reject Report: The Week of Hancock

Posted by John Cairns (jcairns@filmschoolrejects.com) on July 1, 2008

Welcome to another special early edition of the Reject Report — early because this week we have movies rolling out on July 2nd, in time for the long Independence Day weekend. What I will do with this early edition is predict what I think the five-day total is going to be for Hancock, which rolls out wide on 3,900 screens. As well, we’ll look at Kit Kittredge: An American Girl, which expands to 1800 screens on Wednesday as well.

We start with this week’s latest blockbuster Hancock, which is directed by Peter Berg and stars Will Smith. Smith plays John Hancock, a superhero who has fallen out of favor with the public and has been reduced to alcoholism and sleeping on park benches. The city of Los Angeles is basically fed up with having to pay for the damage left over from all the lives he has saved over the years, what with damaging buildings, trains, vehicles, you name it. Anyway, one day Hancock saves the life of a PR executive Ray Embrey, played by Jason Bateman. The grateful PR guy takes on the responsibility of trying to repair Hancock’s image, but his wife, played by Charlize Theron, believes that Hancock is a lost cause who cannot be repaired.

I wish I could be a little more coherent about what the plot of Hancock is, but apparently that’s the biggest problem the movie faces, according to a lot of critics. I have heard a TON of negative feedback from a lot of grumpy people about this picture, with folks claiming it’s no good. I know this negativity has affected the predictions for how well this movie will do. Some people had speculated upwards of $140-150 million for the five-day weekend a while ago, but those grand prognostications are being reduced down to around $110 million. So that is my pick, $110 million, because Will Smith has tons of fans who will see him no matter how bad the movie is. Heck, they all went out and saw I Am Legend, and that wasn’t even a summer movie! This is expected to be the eighth-straight $100-million movie in a row for Will Smith in a leading role, and his 12th Number One film. That will make him the biggest money train in Hollywood – ahead of Harrison Ford, Tom Hanks and Tom Cruise. On top of all that, it’s got a superhero in it, which should attract the comic-book crowd. It also has Charlize Theron, a babe with a lot of fans.

So I am predicting good things for Hancock, though not a smashing performance. You know, it just seems typical of this summer that we see a lot of movies do really good business but not run away with the box office. Hancock should follow that trend.

Now onto Kit Kittredge: An American Girl. This flick is based upon the period-type dolls in the American Girl product line. The movie is set in 1930s Cincinnati and stars Abigail Breslin as Kit, who grows up in the Great Depression and sees her father lose his business. Kit pitches in around the home in the hopes of saving the family’s house, but she also a passion for writing and dreams of getting articles published in the local paper. So will her dreams come true? That is the question.

This movie has been in very limited release for a while now. When it first rolled out in something like five theaters, it made a lot of money. But now it goes wide up against Hancock and a ton of family-friendly fare including WALL-E, Kung Fu Panda and other movies. Lots of people are second-guessing the decision to release the movie this week. Personally, though, I think this movie will make some money. I think $15 million for the weekend and $25 million for the five days is what I expect to see happen. It’s not a blockbuster by any stretch but it should do decent business.

So that is what I expect for the new movies coming out. As for predictions, I am just going to go ahead and predict the July 4-to-6 weekend here and get it over with:

And as I say, I’m predicting $110 million for Hancock over the five-days, with something like $69 million for WALL-E and $45 million for Wanted, and $25 million for Kit Kittredge.

So that is my prediction for the coming week and weekend, and now it’s back to enjoying the summer weather for me. (I am writing this column on Canada Day, which is a lazy day around here.) See you at weekend’s end with news on how Hancock did.

Read more articles by John Cairns