The Reject Report: Oh my God! Evan Almighty, 1408, Angelina Jolie and more…

Posted by John Cairns (jcairns@filmschoolrejects.com) on June 21, 2007

Welcome to the Reject Report. This week the theme for this column can be summed up by the words “Oh my God!” Because the big story is the release this weekend of the big-budget Steve Carrell comedy Evan Almighty, and the fate of this movie is a big question mark. If it’s a big hit, executives at Universal will be delightedly saying “Oh my God!” But if it doesn’t do well, they’ll also be going “Oh my God”, because the budget for this movie is rumored to be upwards of two hundred million dollars. So the people who greenlit this flick have a lot on the line.

This is the follow-up to Bruce Almighty, the big Jim Carrey effort from 2003 where Bruce obtained almighty powers. Here, Steve’s character Evan Baxter is a congressman commanded by God (Morgan Freeman) to build an ark in time for a big flood. The movie is guaranteed to be filled with animals and is more family-friendly than the last movie, rated PG.

There are a few precedents out there in calculating how well Evan Almighty might do. For one thing, the previous effort Bruce Almighty pulled in 86 million dollars during its Memorial Day weekend release. Eighty six million smackeroos. Plus, this movie has Steve Carrell in it reprising his role from the last movie, so all the Office fans should be interested. And it has Lauren Graham in it, so all the Gilmore Girls fans should be interested. And since it has animals in it all the kids should be interested. The problem, though, is that the last flick had big draws like Jim Carrey in it. And Jennifer Aniston. Plus, the early buzz is not good, the critics are not saying kind things about this flick over at Rotten Tomatoes or anywhere else. And aren’t people fed up with sequels? How many weeks in a row has it been now with sequels at the top of the box office? There was Spidey 3, then Shrek the Third, Pirates 3, Ocean’s Thirteen, and last week Fantastic Four 2.

Anyway, lots of people think the box for Evan will top $50 million, but the studio is scared it’s going to come in at 40, and a lot of fans think it might come in around 45. So that’s my prediction, $45 million, because there’s no way this movie is going to do the kind of business The Fantastic Four 2 did. The one thing this movie has in its favor is the fact that it’s opening in over 3,500 theaters, so it will make a lot of money just because of the theater count alone.

Of course, there are other movies coming out this weekend. One is 1408, a John Cusack-Samuel L. Jackson horror flick based on a story by Stephen King. The plot consists of this guy who is in the business of debunking paranormal events who checks into a hotel room where plenty of mysterious deaths have taken place. And then strange things start to happen. The legend is that no one has lasted an hour in room 1408. That’s the story with this movie. The good news is it’s Stephen King, it’s interesting, it’s not another freaking sequel, and it’s PG-13. It was getting a 92% rating at Rotten Tomatoes the last time I checked. Last but not least, Samuel L. Jackson is in it. Pretty darned impressive.

The bad news is that this is yet another horror movie. After seeing what went down with Hostel: Part II and the bath that flick took, well, that’s enough reason to worry. Still, I think the most common predictions have 1408 coming in around $18-20 million. So my prediction is 18.6, behind another week for the fading, critically-panned Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer, but I would not be surprised if it does a lot better— or a lot worse.

Next, Angelina Jolie stars in A Mighty Heart, and it’s about the Daniel Pearl tragedy. He was the Wall Street Journal reporter who was kidnapped in Pakistan and eventually killed. Jolie stars as Pearl’s widow Mariane. The movie unfolds in straight documentary-style fashion as it follows Mariane for a harrowing four weeks as the Pearl tragedy unfolds. This flick was shown at Cannes in May and has received some good critical reaction. I’d say it comes in between $8-10 million in its wide release.

Also coming out this weekend, You Kill Me, starring Ben Kingsley, Tea Leoni and Luke Wilson. All I have to say about this is it’s a mob hit-man movie about a guy who falls in love with a woman who is a relative of one of his hits. It’s from IFC Films and it is rated R, but my understanding is that only about 50 theaters will be showing it. Another movie from IFC Films is Black Sheep, a horror/comedy about a small town terrorized by black sheep. It’s in limited release.

Here, then, is what I am predicting for a potential box office take in the USA this weekend:

We’ll see how accurate this is on Monday. Needless to say the people at Universal will be sweating it out this weekend because really, we don’t know exactly what is in store for Evan Almighty. Will the kids bail this movie out? We’ll see.

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