The Reject Report is in Ruins

Posted by John Cairns (jcairns@filmschoolrejects.com) on April 4, 2008

Welcome to another fun-filled episode of The Reject Report. This week, you can say the Reject Report is in Ruins. We have a movie called The Ruins, and we have a film about the National Football League called Leatherheads set in an era when it looked like the whole league was going to end up in ruins, and on and on.

Not only that, but the box office could be in ruins by weekend’s end. We’re not getting particularly good numbers at the box office lately, and that’s all because filmgoers are bored out of their skulls with the offerings at the cinemas. The die-hards will probably still show up and grumble at the offerings, but everyone else will be at home watching sports on TV. I don’t see that changing yet.

So here we go with this week’s predictions, and I am going to star with football.

Leatherheads, from Universal, opens in 2,700 theaters this weekend and is set in the 1920s, looking back at the beginnings of the then-struggling National Football League. Here, George Clooney plays Dodge Connolly, who convinced a college football hero Carter Rutherford (John Krasinski) to join his team, and who falls for reporter Lexie Littleton (Renee Zellweger) who is digging for dirt on this Rutherford guy. So Clooney is trying to win over Zellweger in this movie, and so is Carter Rutherford!

This is a romantic comedy dressed up as a football movie, which sort of reminds me of Jerry Maguire, which a lot of people thought was another chick flick dressed up as a football movie. I notice Renee Zellweger was in that one, too. Anyway, I think it should make somewhere around $19 mil and get a lot of starved football fans showing up — but frankly I think George Clooney’s involvement could be the box-office kiss of death. Think about it. He was in Michael Clayton which opened soft, and Ocean’s Thirteen was no blockbuster either. So I don’t see much more of a performance than $19 million, but I think there will be people showing up, just because it’s a football movie.

On to Nim’s Island which is opening in 3,400 theaters and is another one of these fantasy-type movies Walden Media is known for. It stars Jodie Foster as this secluded adventure writer Alex Rover, and her biggest fan is this kid called Nim who lives on this island. But when her island is threatened, she turns to Alex Rover for help. And of course, Alex Rover is not used to the outside world, so encounters all kinds of obstacles in trying to save this kid. Abigail Breslin plays Nim and Gerard Butler is in the cast as well.

The theater count is higher, 3,400 to Leatherheads’ 2,700. Yet I don’t see how this movie is going to finish first. It seems like they are going after the Harry Potter fans again — except this is not even close to being a Harry Potter movie. If I were a kid I don’t know if I’d be interested in seeing it. Clearly, though, this movie is going for the kids audience. I am going to predict $16 million, mainly because the NCAA tournament will be littering TV and a lot of bored kids will want something to do.

Next is The Ruins, from Paramount and DreamWorks in 2,500 theaters. It’s a horror movie based on the novel by Scott Smith. It’s set amongst the ruins of the Yucatan Peninsula and features a group of friends whose Mexican holiday takes a turn for the worse. (Sort of like in Turistas a group of friends were on a holiday and, well, never mind.) A lot of scary things start to happen to these poor folks. The movie features Jonathan Tucker, Jena Malone, and Shawn Ashmore and is directed by Carter Smith.

As I say, this sounded similar to Turistas to me — another tourists-go-to-the-tropics horror movie, so I looked up Turistas’ box office totals and discovered it made $7 million dollars. And I’m not talking about $7 million for the weekend: this was their entire gross in the United States of America! And it made $3.5 million in its opening weekend. That’s pretty bad. So if Turistas only made that amount of money, why would The Ruins do any better? Good question. Anyway, I am in a generous mood so I am predicting $9.5 million for The Ruins, because I figure the horror fans are starved for some entertainment by now, and people who read the novel may want to see what the movie is all about. But I think there may be a big dropoff by next weekend.

Finally, I thought I would mention that Shine A Light opens in roughly 250 theaters this weekend and probably will do about $2 million in business. Normally I wouldn’t mention a documentary movie that’s in only 250 theaters, because these usually do not make any money. But this movie does feature the Rolling Stones, and it was directed by Martin Scorsese, and concert movies seem to be all the rage this year. So it might do some decent business and sneak into the Top 10, but I doubt it.

So those are the weekend’s wide releases and here is what I see happening this weekend at the box office:

So there you have it. Actually, we have a pretty close race at the top this weekend, so it really is kind of unpredictable calling it one way or another. I know a lot of people are saying Nim’s Island could finish first. We’ll see what happens.

Back for the results at weekend’s end here at The Reject Report!

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