The Reject Report Gets the “Jump” on the Holiday Weekend

Posted by John Cairns (jcairns@filmschoolrejects.com) on February 14, 2008

Welcome to a Valentine’s Day edition of The Reject Report! All I can say is that love is breaking out all over Hollywood. The writers strike is over, finally, and we have a number of new flicks rolling out on Thursday and getting an early jump on the weekend. Not only that, but Monday is President’s Day. So we have a four-day weekend ahead for new releases Jumper, Definitely, Maybe, The Spiderwick Chronicles, and Step Up 2 the Streets.

Since everyone is opening on Valentine’s Day we’ll start with Definitely, Maybe. It stars Ryan Reynolds, a veteran of one seemingly bad film after another. This time he stars as a New York political consultant in the middle of a divorce. His daughter Maya, played by Abigail Breslin, starts asking him questions about his past relationships. So he tells this story to his daughter about these three women he dated, and changes the names so that Maya might guess who he finally married. Question is whether this dude is going to be able to have a chance to rewrite his sorry romantic history and find that happy ending. Elizabeth Banks, Isla Fisher and Rachel Weisz play his three significant others.

Here’s a question I have. Is this movie going to be the first Ryan Reynolds movie that will actually be any good? It sure looks like it, the reviews look very positive. Here’s a second question: is this going to be one of those rare Ryan Reynolds movies that will be a massive, freaking hit? Uh, ahem, no.

$14 million in 2,203 theaters seems a good guess for this movie. My bet is this flick might benefit from good word of mouth once people realize this is not just another Ryan Reynolds piece of junk. (Yes, I am including Smokin’ Aces.)

Jumper is brought to you by the same director who gave you The Bourne Identity and Mr. and Mrs. Smith (Doug Liman), and is based on the 1992 novel from Steven Gould. It stars Hayden Christensen as “the jumper” David Rice, a man who has the ability to transport himself in an instant from place to place. Seems this ability to jump from place to place has existed for centuries and there is this long feud/war that has been going on between “jumpers” and “paladins.” And the paladins want to kill him, of course. Rachel Bilson is in the movie, so is Diane Lane, Jamie Bell and Samuel L. Jackson.

This flick is in 3,350 theaters, so that ought to be good for at least $30 million right there. There’s just one problem. This movie is getting lousy reviews. But then again, terrible reviews didn’t stop millions of people from parting with their money last weekend for Fool’s Gold.

The Spiderwick Chronicles opens in 3,500 theaters and is based on the series of best-selling children’s fantasy books from writer Holly Black and illustrator Tony DiTerlizzi. It’s about this family that moves into this secluded estate, and of course things start to happen. The kids eventually learn about the strange and scary creatures that inhabit their estate and surroundings. Freddie Highmore and Sarah Bolger star; Highmore actually stars as twins Jared and Simon Grace. Mary Louise Parker, Andrew McCarthy and Martin Short are in it; Nick Nolte and Seth Rogen provide some of the voices.

I think this will get good business from the family crowd, so $26 million is my bet.

Finally, Step Up 2 The Streets rolls out, and it is the follow-up to Step Up which opened with a $21 million weekend in 2006. It’s about a street dancer named Andie who enrolls in the Maryland School of the Arts, and who assembles a talented group of dancers to compete against her former dance crew, the 410. The cast features Briana Evigan, Robert Hoffman, Channing Tatum, Cassie, and Will Kemp.

$18 million is my guess. It seems to me there is stiff competition for this movie at the theaters so that’s why I am not picking this movie to get much more business than that for the four days. It’s in 2,470 theaters, so it should do more business than Definitely, Maybe.

So here is what I see happening for the coming long weekend Friday through Monday.

That’s it! We should have a very clear idea how the weekend will play out once the Thursday totals come in. And for the record, I am predicting yet another pathetic weekend for Paris Hilton’s dismal The Hottie and the Nottie. Are any theaters still going to show it? Good question.

See you Monday, then, with the results of this weekend’s box office.

Read more articles by John Cairns