The Reject Report Enters Another Ice Age

Posted by John Cairns (jcairns@filmschoolrejects.com) on July 2, 2009

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Well, I’ve just dug my way out of all the hate mail that came my way after the last Reject Report, in time to preview Public Enemies and Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs.

All I gotta say about the outpouring from my last posting is: thank you very much! I’m sure Neil is pleased with all the hits the site got, even if he didn’t like what I had to say. I expected maybe 40 or 50 rants from a few people, but as of this writing it’s up to 116 and counting! And not all of it spam either — actual comments, with some people frothing at the mouth.

Man, and I thought the guy who slammed Twilight had lots of comments. In fact, I think he had way more, but still, I’m impressed. Also, I’m glad so many of you liked Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen — although for such a group of happy campers you did seem kind of miserable, particularly about the nation’s film critics.

Hey, it’s only a movie, and it’s only a column. It’s nothing to get high blood pressure over. Lighten up and enjoy life a little bit, that’s all I gotta say. Incidentally, I’m in a pretty good mood today. The actuals came in for the weekend and the Transformers 2 movie came in at almost $109 million, for a five-day total of $200 million.That means that The Dark Knight keeps its record of $203 million over five days, and as far as I’m concerned, that’s all that counts. So I’m happy as heck about that.

Actually, I really don’t care, but I’m still in a good mood to make predictions of the latest movies rolling out on Wednesday.

The first movie I will preview is Public Enemies, and this is the highly-anticipated teaming of both Christian Bale and Johnny Depp., It’s an adaptation of Bryan Burrough’s non-fiction book of the same name and is directed by Michael Mann. Here, Depp plays the infamous American gangster John Dillinger in 1930s Chicago, and Bale plays the FBI agent FBI agent Melvin Purvis who is out to get Dillinger and the other thugs. Marion Cotillard, Channing Tatum, Stephen Dorff, Giovanni Ribisi and Billy Crudup round out the cast.

This flick rolls out in 3,200 theaters and ought to do very well based on the pairing of Depp and Bale alone. The critical reaction seems mostly favorable so far although, clearly, for some people that doesn’t matter at all. This is also a period piece with no robot fights or cool special effects — but maybe there will be a few good gun fights. Anyway, the point I am making is that this doesn’t appear to be a movie with broad-based appeal, but it should find enough fans to get to $52 million over five days and $33 million on the weekend. It could go higher if the buzz is good, but the competition this weekend is pretty strong as well. This strikes me as another one of these movies that winds up being very strong week after week, so that could be the scenario that plays out at the box office.

Next is Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and this flick has a massive release in store for the weekend, something like 4,000 theaters. I think that ensures a big box office right there – keep in mind, the previous Ice Age movies have been very strong at the box office as well. This one stars the voices of, among others, Ray Romano, John Leguizamo, Denis Leary, Queen Latifah, Seann William Scott and a few others. Not only are our prehistoric animal friends back for a third time, but also in 3-D. The movie is being released by 20th Century Fox.

Now, I know quite a few people out there (I take it many of them are bitter Pixar fans) who are saying these Ice Age creatures have had it and this should be the end of the franchise. Right, tell that to these kids who will drag their parents to this flick in droves. I think this movie is well-placed on the calendar to clean up, and I am predicting $90 million for five days and $65 million for the weekend, right in line with what Up and that last Madagascar sequel made when they opened. Heck, it’s in 4,000 theaters, the opening is bound to be good.

I know it is still a little bit early for weekend predictions but I think both these movies will take a bite out of the Transformers 2 movie this weekend I would not be surprised to see Transformers 2 come in at under $50 million. I’m guessing $48 million, which would be well over a 50 percent drop. Here’s what I think is likely to happen: