The Reject Report Declares War on Kate Hudson

Posted by John Cairns (jcairns@filmschoolrejects.com) on January 8, 2009

Welcome to another Reject Report. It is shaping up to be a tight and unpredictable weekend at the box office on this, the second weekend of Throwaway Season — that portion of the movie calendar where the studios traditionally dump their trash. At least, that is what it seems like to most movie fans. The main question we face this weekend is whether the new romcom Bride Wars will carry the day at the box office, or whether the title will go to Gran Torino (expanding in wide release) or Marley and Me (which has been on top since Christmas). We also have a couple of other movies taking their bow this weekend as well. So let’s move ahead and start with Bride Wars.

Bride Wars stars the delicious, popular-with-guys Kate Hudson in what she hopes will be the start of her big cinematic comeback after a string of lousy movies. Let’s face it, her career is really in the toilet these days. It was bad enough when she was appearing in all those silly romcoms (How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days etcetera), but those movies looked like Oscar material compared to her most current material. She’s appeared in one turd movie after another recently, including the awful You, Me and Dupree and the horrid Fool’s Gold. She has appeared in so much junk lately that you can tell if the movie is going to be terrible just by seeing the name “Kate Hudson” on the advertising.

I have to believe there are people who are going to look with trepidation at the latest flick Hudson has associated herself with, just by virtue of her recent track record. This time she is in Bride Wars, yet another one of these wedding movies that we are used to seeing this time of year. Hudson stars as Liv, and Anne Hathaway stars as Emma — two best friends who dreamed of being married in the Plaza Hotel. Anyway, these two wind up finding their dreamboats and they both end up booking their dream weddings in the Plaza Hotel. One small problem: it’s on the same day. Candice Bergen and Kristen Johnston are also in it.

Now, a lot of the prognosticators out there seem to believe that this movie will finish in first place with a haul of around $19 to $21 million dollars on the strength of both Hudson and Hathaway and also on the basis of the slick marketing for this movie. They figure there will be a captive audience of females lining up to see this one. Here’s the problem, though. I went over to Rotten Tomatoes a day ago, and the rating over there for this movie was not just bad, it was REALLY bad. We’re talking zero percent bad.

Now, I know there are people out there who subscribe to the theory that the public knows best what is good or bad at the theaters, and that they will make hits out of good movies and avoid the bad ones like the plague. But those of you who follow the box office pretty closely know that this is just not the case. It may seem hard to believe, but it is possible for zero-percent movies or other flicks that get unanimously-panned by the critics to win at the box office. I’ve seen it happen way too often — particularly at this time of year when a lot of bad flicks are being dumped on the public at theaters. I remember all the crushing negative reviews for Fool’s Gold last year. Its rating at Rotten Tomatoes was at around ten per cent, and it still finished in first place and made over twenty million its first weekend out. What’s really sad is that Anne Hathaway is probably going to do better at the box office with this shaky-looking Bride Wars flick than for Rachel Getting Married which she got rave reviews for. Then again, what do you expect? Bride Wars is getting all the publicity and better distribution (over 3,200 theaters), so it will make more money in spite of itself.

I’m going to go against the grain here. I have to think there are people out there who are fed up with all the junk Kate Hudson keeps on starring in, and sooner or later they will get wise and not show up for this one. The problem, though, is that enough people are going to be conned into seeing this movie based on Anne Hathaway’s association with the movie — and Anne Hathaway is not known for associating herself with too much junk. The marketing campaign is also pretty good, so I am going to predict $17 million and a narrow first-place finish for Bride Wars — which is still a lower haul than what other people are predicting. Let’s face it: this flick had been running at zero percent, and I guess it’s up to seven or eight per cent now. You would think this is going to have some impact.

Now, I want to talk about Gran Torino, which I think is going to give Bride Wars a run for its money this weekend even though its theater count is a bit lower (2,800 screens). This isn’t exactly a “new” release because it has been showing up in theaters since the middle of December. This stars Clint Eastwood in what could be his last starring role in a movie. He also directs this flick about a Korean War veteran who catches a Hmong teenager trying to steal his 1972 Gran Torino.

Attendance for this flick has been great for the limited release showings, and this has a lot of Oscar buzz going for it. What I have read, though, is that this movie is likely to draw in an older audience with more guys interested in it (let’s face it, the plot involves a 1972 Gran Torino). But this weekend a lot of guys are going to be more interested in the National Football League, which holds its divisional playoffs in direct competition with just about every single movie playing this weekend. So the box office for Clint Eastwood might not be as good as people think, or even hope. But what can you do? This is a movie aimed at the Oscar voters and it pretty much has to be released at this time of year to get any consideration whatsoever.

To me, the relevant precedent is to look at how Million Dollar Baby did in its first weekend in wide release. It made over $12 million, and this was a flick that went on to win the academy award for Best Picture. I think any showing better than that would be pretty good for Clint Eastwood. I am going to predict $16 million for Gran Torino, a little more than what some others are predicting, just based on the good buzz I hear about the reaction to the movie.

Next is The Unborn, a horror movie from director David S. Goyer rolling out in about 2,300 theaters from Universal. To make a long story short, this is that movie that is getting a lot of buzz because of those movie posters of star Odette Yustman in her undies. I mean really, man, people in Hollywood must think we are all a bunch of idiots and that all we care about is whether some babe in her undies is in a movie. Anyway, that’s what these genius marketers think will reel them in for The Unborn. Oh, and by the way, Rotten Tomatoes has this flick running at around 11 per cent, so this one looks like another real work of art.

I don’t feel like talking about The Unborn anymore. I think this will bring in the usual horror fans and a younger crowd who might want to get frightened. $12 million is my guess.

Do I even need to talk about Not Easily Broken, which is rolling out on just 724 screens? I don’t think that flick is even going to make it to the Top Ten. I am just predicting $3 million for it.

I dunno about you, but I’m depressed. Is this all there is at the theaters? There’s Gran Torino, for sure, but you are really gambling your entertainment dollar on some of the other movies out there, and it’s bound to get even worse in the next few weeks. Oh, by the way, that adorable-dog movie Marley and Me is still in theaters, but I notice it’s fading fast (it even got beat on Wednesday by Benjamin Button) and I am only predicting $14 million for it.

Here’s my guess on what I think might happen this weekend:

Those are my fearless predictions — and you have to be fearless on a weekend like this. I kind of think this is a more unpredictable weekend than a lot of these prognosticators think. Back Sunday with the results right here at the Reject Report.

Read more articles by John Cairns