Spider-Man 3 Will Make Bank, but Will it Break Records?
Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on May 2, 2007
Chances are that you are already planning on seeing Spider-Man 3, whether it be at midnight on Thursday or sometime over the weekend. Like so many others, no matter how badly it gets panned by critics, you are going to see it at least once anyway. But Peter Sciretta over at /Film raises a great question: We know you will see it, but will you see it again?
Sony is sure hoping that you will come back out for a second showing, that is why they have dumped millions upon millions into the marketing of the film. As Chris Thilk at Movie Marketing Madness Explains, “Sony has to be at least a little pleased with reports that the movie’s awareness levels are huge and that, according to MovieTickets.com, early ticket demand has been strong.”
With plenty of posters, dubious amounts of trailers and the cavalcade of publicity, this film is definitely at the forefront of everyone’s mind, but Sony missed one thing; Shrek 3 hits theaters two weeks later and Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End drops a week after that. I’m not sure if anyone remembers this, but Shrek 2 made $108 million on its opening weekend back in ‘04 and Pirates 2, well… it made $135 million last summer. Needless to say it will be a tight squeeze. My prediction, Spider-Man 3 will hit big in week 1 with a box office gross somewhere in the $125 million plus area. It will then be strong in week 2, only having to fight off 28 Weeks Later. Just don’t be surprised if it hits a wall in its third and fourth weekend. Could it be bad timing? Sure. Could it have something to do with the strength of the film? Who knows. What we do know is that no matter what, this one is going to be a big start to what should be an absolutely mammoth summer of cinema.
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