Reject Report: Will Ferrell Goes for a Box Office Slam Dunk

Posted by John Cairns (jcairns@filmschoolrejects.com) on February 29, 2008

It’s officially basketball season at The Reject Report. Yes, the good news is football season is long over, so there’s no excuse for you to sit at home and watch the NFL on TV. Time to trudge through the snow to the multiplex to watch movies about that other great national sport — basketball. Will Ferrell is back to the Seventies again with Semi-Pro. As well, more serious fare is being rolled out with Penelope and The Other Boleyn Girl. So on to the latest movies.

Semi-Pro is the latest sports venture for Will Ferrell. Of course he ribbed NASCAR with Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby. And of course he ribbed the whole decade of the 1970s in Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, what with the loud anchorman TV suits, the moustache and all that. Along those same lines comes Semi-Pro, which returns Ferrell to the decade of funky music, gaudy outfits and Afros. The story focuses on the Flint Tropics of the late, great American Basketball Association. That league was known for the three-point basket, a multi-colored red-white-and-blue ball and plenty of gimmicks. In short, this legendary league is ripe for parody.

The movie is set in 1976 and the Tropics are the worst team in the ABA. Will Ferrell plays player-owner-coach Jackie Moon, and it’s his job to turn this team around fast so that it can be part of the upcoming merger with the National Basketball Association. If Flint makes it to fourth place, it can get into the NBA! The movie also features Woody Harrelson and André Benjamin.

I took one look at the trailer and thought $30 million would be a good estimate for the weekend. After all, it’s a Will Ferrell movie, and Ferrell movies have always opened to good business. But buzz for this movie is less than great. If this was really a good movie, wouldn’t they roll it out during the summer instead? Good question. Still, there’s not much competition out there right now, so $30 million is likely for Semi-Pro.

Next is The Other Boleyn Girl, based on the novel by Philippa Gregory about two sisters who wie for the attention of Henry VIII. Both are driven by family ambition, but of course the competition threatens to divide these two sisters. Mary Boleyn is played by Scarlett Johansson while Natalie Portman plays Anne. Eric Bana plays the King.

Of course, we know the ending to this story — Anne Boleyn got the King, got the fame, and got beheaded. What we don’t know is how it all happened. I am sure this flick will get a lot of history buffs and fans of British royalty showing up. I see $5 million in business for The Other Boleyn Girl.

Last but not least is Penelope. which stars Christina Ricci and Reese Witherspoon. Ricci plays Penelope, a woman born to this upper-crust family who must endure a family curse: she is born with the nose of a pig! To break the curse her family tries to hook her up with a high society blueblood, one of her own kind, who would be willing to love her. Then that’ll be the end of the curse. But Penelope has her own ideas and wants her independence.

I have an interesting story about this movie. I was at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2006 when this movie was screened as a gala showing at Roy Thomson Hall. I was just there to gawk, and I actually saw Christina Ricci and Reese Witherspoon there on the red carpet! For some reason, Samuel L. Jackson was also there, too. I don’t know why, though. (I guess he was there to support Christina Ricci.) Snakes on a Plane had just come out and everyone was waving at Samuel L. and chanting his name.

Anyway, that’s my story about Penelope, and I predict $3 million. Or maybe even less. I am having a hard time making picks for these smaller movies these days. It seems I always pick these art-house movies to make $3 million for the weekend, then these movies roll out and bring in half a million bucks. I’ve been burned a few times by Charlie Bartlett, Vince Vaughn’s Wild West Comedy Show, any number of modest flicks. Anyway, I’m picking $3 million for Penelope.

So factoring in the usual drops by the holdovers from last weekend, here are my projections for this weekend at the box office.

Semi-Pro – $30 million
Vantage Point – $12 million
The Spiderwick Chronicles – $8 million
Jumper – $6.5 million
Step Up 2 the Streets – $5.5 million
The Other Boleyn Girl – $5 million
Fool’s Gold – $3.8 million
Juno – $3.3 million
Be Kind Rewind – $3.2 million
No Country for Old Men – $3.1 million
Penelope – $3 million

There you have it! Back at the end of the weekend with the box office summary here at the Reject Report.

Read more articles by John Cairns