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It’s become more than just an era.  The reign of Shrek Forever After can now be considered a dynasty becoming only the third film this year to come out on top of the box off for three weekends (after Avatar and Alice in Wonderland) and the first film of the Shrek franchise to do so.  It has had a number of other films coming at it, but nothing has been able to whittle its weekend take enough to knock it off its post.  This weekend seems to be the moment that happens.  When Sunday night comes around, Shrek will likely not be the reigning champion.  Instead, the top slot will go to one of two new films hitting wide release.  It’s going to be a tough call on which one of those films will truly win out.

BIG HITTERS

The two films vying for the number one spot are both running on the steam of brand loyalty.  First up is The Karate Kid.  A 26-year gap separates the first film’s release and this remake.  A lot of people who were children themselves when Johnny Lawrence swept Daniel Larusso’s leg will be taking their own children to see Jackie Chan teach Jaden Smith to take off and put on his jacket.  It’s going to be interesting to see how successful this new Karate Kid is really going to be.  Jackie Chan is not the biggest opener when it comes to headlining films.  Outside of the Rush Hour Films, which were helped by Chris Tucker, Chan’s biggest opening was 2008′s The Forbidden Kingdom.  Even that film didn’t rely on Chan alone, as Jet Li helped get it above the $20-million opening weekend.  We won’t count Kung Fu Panda‘s $60-million plus opening, since Chan was such a small cog on that wheel of success.

Neither Jaden Smith nor director Harald Zwart offer much in regards to selling points, either.  It looks like The Karate Kid is going to have to rely on Jackie Chan and its name branding to get it to that top spot.  The film’s running time is going to be a hindrance, as well.  When it comes down to it, The Karate Kid is a family movie, and family movies at 2-hour plus running times just don’t work as well as they might otherwise.  Talk to the Wachowski Brothers about that problem.  Speed Racer did have a solid opening, though, based pretty solely on its name.  Chan’s presence and the fact that Sony has been pimping the hell out of this movie could give it a nice weekend take even if its legs are likely to be swept out from under it pretty quickly.

To see Jackie Chan wuss out and use a flyswatter, check out the trailer for The Karate Kid right here:

The other sampling of brand loyalty used to back a tent-pole movie is found in The A-Team.  Based solely on the idea of being based on a TV series is somewhat of a gamble with today’s box office.  Opening weekend numbers for TV-based movies have been all over the map in recent years.  Even popular series like Miami Vice, Bewitched, and The Dukes of Hazzard weren’t enough to push the films based on them to huge numbers, opening weekend or for the long haul.  It’s probably best to compare The A-Team‘s opening potential to something like Charlie’s Angels, which had similar popularity and looks to have something of the same level of appeal going in.  Charlie’s Angels opened with $40.1 million in 2000, so you can kind of gleam the potential here from that.

The A-Team also has some star power driving it.  Liam Neeson, Bradley Cooper, Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson, and Sharlto Copley aren’t exactly the A-team when it comes to movie stardom, but the combination of who they are could easily substitute as A-list itself.  Each actor brings a slightly different demographic to the table, and I have a feeling all of them put together could give The A-Team some respectable opening numbers.

If you want to pity the fool before heading out to see it, check out the trailer for The A-Team right here:

FAMILIARITIES

The battle for third place doesn’t seem like it’s going to offer up any surprises.  Shrek Forever After will surely take it as a consolation prize for being knocked out of its stop spot.  Don’t expect its numbers to trail off all that much, though.  It’s weekend drop-offs have been in the high 30 to low 40% range.  There isn’t any reason to expect this to be much higher here in its fourth week, and Shrek Forever After will likely top the $200-million mark by the end of the weekend.

Good word of mouth should allow Get Him to the Greek to have a respectable second weekend.  With any luck, it’s second weekend drop-off won’t be higher than 35%, and it should be close to breaking even with its $40-million budget by Sunday.  It’s final tally will probably be in the Forgetting Sarah Marshall range in the low $60s, not bad for a film that wasn’t exactly sold as a sequel and wasn’t allowed to get any fuel from its own brand loyalty.

LITTLE OPENERS

A number of indie films are getting their limited releases this weekend including two favorites from this year’s Sundance Film Festival.  Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work opens on seven screens in New York, L.A., and San Francisco.  It’s a hysterical and revealing look at a year in the life of the pop culture icon, and you can check out our very own Lauren Flanagan’s review of it.

You can also check out Joan in this two and a half minutes of glory:

The other films opening in limited release this weekend that made waves at Sundance is Winter’s Bone.  Roadside Attractions did themselves a favor by picking up what some (myself included) considered the best film at Sundance this year.  In fact, it is my favorite film of 2010 to this point.  I cannot recommend this film noir set in poverty-stricken, rural Missouri enough, and, if my cries of positivity aren’t enough, check out Landon Palmer’s review.  It opens in New York and L.A.

Get your redneck chill on with this trailer for Winter’s Bone:

Other films getting limited release this weekend include Coco Chanel & Igor Stravinsky in New York and L.A., Gangster’s Paradise: Jerusalema in New York and L.A., the documentary The Lottery in in New York, and King of Evening in Atlanta and Charlotte.  The documentary Rush: Beyond the Lighted Stage from the crew that made Iron Maiden: Flight 666 plays one night only in a number of cities throughout the country.  Additional nights are being added for shows that have already sold out, though.

Here’s how the top 10 is shaping up this weekend:

1. The Karate Kid – $35.2m NEW
2. The A-Team – $33.9m NEW
3. Shrek Forever After – $14.9m (-41%)
4. Get Him to the Greek – $11.4m (-34.8%)
5. Killers – $7m (-55.6%)
6. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time – $6.8m (-51.4%)
7. Sex and the City 2 – $6.7m (-45.5%)
8. Marmaduke – $6.4m (-44.3%)
9. Iron Man 2 – $5m (-36.7%)
10. Splice – $3.6m (-50%)

With this rundown, this gives this weekend $130.9 million in box office grosses.  That would be an 8.5% increase from last weekend’s $120.6 million take.  This would also be an extremely slight increase (less than a percent) from the same weekend last year.  At that time, neither The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 nor Imagine That could put much of a dent in the numbers The Hangover and Up were getting in their second and third weekends, respectively.

These predictions are reasonably low when you consider two fairly large films are getting released this weekend.  However, judging by the lackluster numbers many films are getting this Summer, it doesn’t seem likely we are going to have too many more $50 million or more opening weekends between now and the end of the season.  There will be a few more for sure.  Toy Story 3 and The Twilight Saga: Eclipse are sure to have gangbuster openings, and that’s just before the end of the month.  However, it’s going to be a major surprise if any films like The Karate Kid or The A-Team pull in record-breaking numbers. We’ll be back on Sunday night to go over the weekend numbers.

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