Weekly Over/Under: Jackass is back… Call a Doctor!

Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on September 18, 2006

Last week’s Over/Under makes me wish that I would read the theater counts more often. In an act of naive prediction, I picked The Last Kiss to out-gross the Rock’s Gridiron Gang. And for my unresearched choice, I was rewarded with another disappointing loss at the hands of an excellent film. Gridiron Gang dominated a Box Office Weekend that was lackluster at best, showing that a wider release does in fact equal more revenue. Go figure, right? Here is the quick breakdown of the Top 5 Grossing films from the weekend (via Box Office Mojo):

1. Gridiron Gang (review) - $15.0 million
2. The Black Dahlia (review) - $10.3 million
3. Everyone’s Hero - $6.1 million
4. The Last Kiss (review) - $4.7 million
5. The Covenant (review) - $4.7 million

Last Week’s Bids (current records):
Neil Miller - Last Kiss (1-2)
Brian Gibson - Gridiron Gang (3-0)
Chris Beaumont - Gridiron Gang (3-0)
BobbyQuickDraw - Gridiron Gang (3-0)
Cole Abaius - Last Kiss (0-3)
Matthew Alexander - Did not Participate (2-0)

Once again Cole Abaius gets points for the style of his explanation - breaking down the math on Garden State and what “could” have happened had it been a wider release. But unfortunately if success in this world were solely dependent on one’s style, Film School Rejects would be the most read website - ever. And we all know that is not true (yet).

Now on to this week’s query…

This Week’s Over/Under: Will Jackass: Number Two clear the $20 million mark?

The Analysis: Just to further expose the withering intelligence of American youths, the guys who brought us Jackass: The Movie in 2002 are releasing Number Two this Friday. It will face absolutely no competition within it’s demographic - you know, the “staple your scrotum to a 2×4″ crowd. Flyboys will attract historians and young girls not yet over their James Franco fetish; Jet Li’s Fearless is highly anticipated, but only in certain circles; All The King’s Men just oozes Oscar worthiness, but will draw a slightly older crowd. And of course there is the competition left over from last week; Gridiron Gang still has the momentum of football season on it’s side, The Black Dahlia is intriguing enough and had a solid opening weekend, and The Last Kiss is good enough that it may do better in week 2 than it did in week 1. But does all of this competition scare the Jackass crew? Hell no! They put crabs (the Crustaceans) down their pants, drive golf carts off of ramps - and lest we forget the stapling of random body parts. If the immense success of the first film is any indicator, this one is in for a very large lead out of the gate.

My Bid: Jackass: The Movie ripped off a $22 million opening weekend in ‘02 on only 2,500 screens. Number Two should clear $20 mil. with relative ease.

This one could be very close, so I’m interested to see what my fellow Film School Rejects have to say, not to mention what our lovely readers think… Feel free to chime in below in the comments area or discuss it over on the Film School Rejects Forum.

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