Weekly Over/Under: Jackass is back… Call a Doctor!

Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on September 18, 2006

Gridiron GangLast week’s Over/Under makes me wish that I would read the theater counts more often. In an act of naive prediction, I picked The Last Kiss to out-gross the Rock’s Gridiron Gang. And for my unresearched choice, I was rewarded with another disappointing loss at the hands of an excellent film. Gridiron Gang dominated a Box Office Weekend that was lackluster at best, showing that a wider release does in fact equal more revenue. Go figure, right? Here is the quick breakdown of the Top 5 Grossing films from the weekend (via Box Office Mojo):

1. Gridiron Gang (review) – $15.0 million
2. The Black Dahlia (review) – $10.3 million
3. Everyone’s Hero – $6.1 million
4. The Last Kiss (review) – $4.7 million
5. The Covenant (review) – $4.7 million

Last Week’s Bids (current records):
Neil Miller – Last Kiss (1-2)
Brian Gibson – Gridiron Gang (3-0)
Chris Beaumont – Gridiron Gang (3-0)
BobbyQuickDraw – Gridiron Gang (3-0)
Cole Abaius – Last Kiss (0-3)
Matthew Alexander – Did not Participate (2-0)

Once again Cole Abaius gets points for the style of his explanation – breaking down the math on Garden State and what “could” have happened had it been a wider release. But unfortunately if success in this world were solely dependent on one’s style, Film School Rejects would be the most read website – ever. And we all know that is not true (yet).

Now on to this week’s query…

Jackass: Number TwoThis Week’s Over/Under: Will Jackass: Number Two clear the $20 million mark?

The Analysis: Just to further expose the withering intelligence of American youths, the guys who brought us Jackass: The Movie in 2002 are releasing Number Two this Friday. It will face absolutely no competition within it’s demographic – you know, the “staple your scrotum to a 2×4″ crowd. Flyboys will attract historians and young girls not yet over their James Franco fetish; Jet Li’s Fearless is highly anticipated, but only in certain circles; All The King’s Men just oozes Oscar worthiness, but will draw a slightly older crowd. And of course there is the competition left over from last week; Gridiron Gang still has the momentum of football season on it’s side, The Black Dahlia is intriguing enough and had a solid opening weekend, and The Last Kiss is good enough that it may do better in week 2 than it did in week 1. But does all of this competition scare the Jackass crew? Hell no! They put crabs (the Crustaceans) down their pants, drive golf carts off of ramps – and lest we forget the stapling of random body parts. If the immense success of the first film is any indicator, this one is in for a very large lead out of the gate.

My Bid: Jackass: The Movie ripped off a $22 million opening weekend in ‘02 on only 2,500 screens. Number Two should clear $20 mil. with relative ease.

This one could be very close, so I’m interested to see what my fellow Film School Rejects have to say, not to mention what our lovely readers think… Feel free to chime in below in the comments area or discuss it over on the Film School Rejects Forum.


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  • No way. Back when the first Jackass movie came out was during that whole phase when that stuff was cool. No one cares anymore. None of their shows are still on TV. I really think this is going to struggle at the box office. Most of the people that were into the stapling nuts to their leg thing 4 years ago have grown up since then.
  • BobbyQuickdraw
    This is a tough one. I'm going to say under, but I'm pretty hesitant. Its been a sucky box office lately and I figure that to continue. However, not much is opening this weekend to compete with it. Tough call. I say under, but close at 17.5mil.
  • UNDER, it is going to be a week where every film...King's Men, Flyboys, Fearless, & Jackass will all be somewhere around $10 mil. I say Jackass might hit $15 mil
  • This is a tough one. School has settled in, so the kids may be allowed out to sneak into the movies this weekend. The first Jackass did crack 20 mill on 2500 screens, but it was very popular, and that has waned over the years. They are compensating for that by bumping the theater count.

    Many I have talked too are looking forward to it, but the advertising doesn't seem to be all that aggressive, but it may not have to be with word of mouth it is likely to get.

    It has the advantage of no competition for this highly sought demographic... Hmmmm.

    I am going to have to say Under.
  • Hate to repeat my brilliance from last week, but the method is in the madness. Once again, I'll use math to calculate my response: I've polled a statistically significant amount of people (12) as to whether they will go see Jackass #2 this opening weekend. Only one person said yes. Looks grim for Jackass, eh?

    However, in order to properly translate the data, we have to adjust for how many people could possibly see the movie - there are currently 295,734,134 living in the United State. Of that number, we can subtract(5.1%) 15,082,441 who live under the poverty line (that's quite a lot!) who might not be able to buy tickets. With a total of 280,651,693 and at a rate of 1:12, we can expect 23,387,641 people to see the movie opening weekend - at an average of $7 per ticket, I'm estimating that Jackass #2 will gross roughly $163 million opening weekend.

    That's a vote for over.

    Ghandi: Numbers don't lie, Abe.
    The Number Four: I'm the number five!
  • Cole,

    You are extreme! I love it!

    I don't know if Jackass will hit $160 million, but I am still holding strong that it will clear $20 mil.
  • Here is a quick update: Box Office Mojo has Jackass predicted at $11 million on Friday alone... Wow!

    Looks like Cole and I may finally pull one out!!
  • Yes, Neil, time for us to bask in the hubristic glory of finally winning one. Whether I ever win another Over/Under again, I will always rest on these laurels. You know what they say: you never forget your first time!

    Jackass #2 - $28.1 mil
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