Commentary Track
How Much Could The Dark Knight Really Make?
Posted by Kevin Carr (kevin@filmschoolrejects.com) on July 15, 2008
Box office hounds are anticipating the numbers for this weekend’s The Dark Knight almost as much as they are anticipating seeing the film. And with studio hype and pop culture awareness for this blockbuster at an all-time high, many people are wondering what the final result could be.
The number I’ve seen ballyhooed about most is $130 million for the three-day weekend, including midnight (and 3 a.m. and 6 a.m.) shows. This would be great for a movie that isn’t opening on a holiday or long weekend. Word from Warner Bros. is that the film will finish in the $90 to $100 million range.
Still, our illustrious Executive Editor Neil Miller has said this film “will pretty much make a billion dollars on opening weekend.”
Is that possible? How much could The Dark Knight potentially make?
With the 2 1/2 hour running time, there’s really only enough room to fit seven shows in per screen, unless you run it around the clock (which is really only going to happen the first night). On average, movie theaters have 225 seats.
According to the National Association of Theaters Owners, the average ticket price in 2007 was $6.88. Assuming roughly 2% inflation, let’s round that to $7 per ticket on average in the United States this weekend.
Crunch those numbers together (7 showings per screen x 225 seats per theater x $7 per ticket), and you have a potential of $11,025 per screen per day if each showing were to sell out.
Although the final theater/screen count isn’t concrete yet, the film is scheduled to open in more than 4300 theaters, many of which will be showing it on multiple screens. Let’s assume that on the average, theaters will be showing it in two houses. That gives a potential $22,050 per theater, conservatively.
If every seat in every theater sells out, The Dark Knight could make $94,815,000 each day it is open. Tack on an extra $10 million or so for midnight shows on Thursday night, and you’re pushing $300 million for opening weekend ($294 million and change, to be more exact).
Of course, if every one of the 301 million men, women and children in the U.S. were to see it opening weekend, at $7 per ticket, it could make more than $2 billion.
So, Neil Miller might be right after all. We shall see, come Monday.
How much do you think The Dark Knight will make?
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31 Comments
July 15th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
It’s not a holiday weekend.
Word is it’s dark and intense so mommies and kiddies are staying home…
Lots of interest but probably only of GARGANTUAN importance to internet movie geeks
Not really a date movie
$95,256,000.00
July 15th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
My guess shall be 114.5 million dollars because I can say whatever I want on the internet.
July 15th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
I’ve done the math on this, and it’s going to make at least 4 bats.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
well, looking at the current trend so far..and taking into consideration the current economic problems…TDK will open big but no “big” as in huge.
Any other year and i would bet money on this movie making upwards of $300 million opening night. But not this year.
Im gonna go with $200 to $250 million.
The biggest opening weekend this year (Indy 4, Iron Man, Hancock..anymore?) opened well but not tremendously. You can argue that unfamiliarity limited Iron Man, or overkill and undermarketing hampered Indy 4 and that negative reviews and buzzkill lowered the earnings for Hancock hence these movies didnt really hit their real potential in terms of audience. TDK however has the opposite of all these things along with a huge fanbase. again…if you’re gonna bet this week, listen to my prediction folks! (i very nearly won the lottery of 5 occasions*)
$200 to $250 million!
*not true. but i wanted to give my point more gravitas
July 15th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
110,000,000
July 15th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
NO WAY THIS COULD HAPPEN BUT HILARIOUS AND WELL MADE ARTICLE. LOVE THAT YOU ALL USED THE MATH TO SHOW THE FACTS. SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT VERY UNLIKELY. LOVE THAT WE FINALLY HAVE AN EVENT FILM FOR ONCE THIS YEAR
July 15th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
$27.5 Million. As reported by Marvel’s website.
July 15th, 2008 at 5:26 pm
Good article… it will definitely not make 300 million, but the $130 million estimate sounds realistic enough.
Can’t wait to see it!
July 15th, 2008 at 5:40 pm
Not going to presume to put a price tag down, but here in Ireland (release date 24th) cinema’s are already heavily booked, and though this does and has happened before, I’ve never seen this volume of seats booked this much or at any stage prior to release.
July 15th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
……$2Billion……….if thats happens……..daaaaaaammmmmmnnnnnn.
@ Josh, never trust the Marvel website when there talking about there biggest industry enemy lol
July 15th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
WB is going to donate it all to charity. $0
July 16th, 2008 at 2:42 am
I just hope it beats Meet Dave.
July 16th, 2008 at 2:42 am
@ ROB
I, too, can say whatever i want and enjoy it.
July 16th, 2008 at 3:31 am
The sad fact is that it will probably make less on its midnight bow than the tabloids will pay for the pictures of Bradjelina’s twins. :-(
July 16th, 2008 at 3:52 am
I wouldn’t be shocked if it made over 200 million, one thing is for sure: I think it’s going to beat Iron Man down.
:( Sad for iron man fans ;__;
July 16th, 2008 at 5:02 am
You forgot to add the IMAX boost.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
i hope it whoops spider man 3’s(marvel) ass!!!!! it will crush the 151m mark!!!!
July 16th, 2008 at 10:18 pm
This one has the I gotta go see it feel, and not just from big time movie fans but from the casual movie goer. I haven’t had so many people talk to me about wanting to see a movie since Jurassic Park came out in 1993. I see no reason why it won’t hit 150 mil over the weekend!
July 17th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
you forgot to put in IMAX
seeing as how my freinds paid 9 dollars for the regular and i paid 15 dollars for my IMAX
and the IMAX nearest me is sold out until monday It has no other rivals…
besides Mamma Mia (poor Meryl Streep, god I love her but the studio thats putting Mamma Mia out was stupid to have it out the same weekend as the dark knight)…
this movie with make at least 200 Million opening weekend.
July 17th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
it would be hilarious if it got all this hype and did about 50 million. hahaha, people only want to see it because of heath ledger. which is hilarious because most people didn’t want to see it before he died because he was going to be in it.
July 18th, 2008 at 10:35 am
Funny article……It should make $145 million weekend, past the second Pirates movie but
likely not Spider-Man 3, and about $190+ million for the week (probably a top three
opening week all time). [That's domestic box office. It's not opening in all the major
worldwide markets, so foreign won't break any records.] It’s opening in a record number
of theaters, though, so up to $160+ million record weekend is possible. Still, that seems
steep and here’s why (1) it’s super dark, so less likely to nab families with younger kids
than Spidey, Pirates, etc. and (2) Mamma Mia plus a couple other hangover movies–
that’s right, they will steal just enough of certain demos (Spidey 3 had no competition at
all, really). Running time is a non-issue (Spidey and Pirates were really bloated too).
Anything below $125 million weekend and $175 seven-day would, imho, be a
disappointment. Overall, it should easily take the year’s crown with about $375 million
because the rest of the summer slate is pretty weak except for comedies, but I don’t see
it having the legs to pass $400 million for the above reasons.
July 19th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
it will not make 200 mill. you guys nuts, the record is 150
to the haters. this movie was going to be popular with or without ledgers death. maybe its more popular now but it was going to be a success anyway.
its made 66 mill on friday. saturdays are usually always bigger than friday. i say it takes in at least another 50-60 not counting sunday
it will beat the spiderman record also
July 19th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
It should do realyl well, I’m guessing >100,000,000.
@ The Comedian, I think I could make a movie that could do better than Meet Dave
July 19th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
$155 Million - $175 Million!
July 20th, 2008 at 7:10 am
i think, based on the marketing they did, and word of mouth, it will pass spiderpuss 3- also, many will want to see it more than once. im glad its already passed movies like “meet dave” and “joel shumacher must die”- oops. the last one was a fantasy. my bad. (inside joke)
July 20th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
Looks like Jewel gets it.
Estimate for The Dark Knight this opening weekend is over 155million, breaking the record and having the biggest 3 day opening ever.
July 22nd, 2008 at 5:20 pm
with 182 million in 4 days I guess it will hit 330 by next weekend possibly 400 look out
titanic
August 2nd, 2008 at 12:16 pm
up til NOW and its aug 2nd…they have made 221 million.
August 10th, 2008 at 9:25 pm
man… some of you were WAY off… only 90 million in opening weekend?? hmm…
August 11th, 2008 at 6:22 am
ummm… $440 million now? :) i just love it. let’s just all appreciate how the film is doing. inflation this inflation that. look at what TDK has to go up against. much higher ticket prices, rampant piracy around the internet, and people who are holding out to just watch it on DVD and BD. back in Titanic’s time, ticket prices were half of what they are today, no DVD’s, internet was a thing of the future. of course they would make more ‘ticket’ sales. The Dark Knight is a piece of movie history, or dare i say it, HISTORY, that we should be glad we are experiencing. Let’s go for half a billion shall we? and really put a smile on everyone’s faces. heh.
September 28th, 2008 at 6:30 pm
1 billion, easy. Wikipedia already puts the gross for the film at $971,206,180 as of 9*23*08. :-p