Holidays, Pirates and Big Box Office Numbers on the Horizon!

Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on May 25, 2007

Hollywood’s theme for this summer movie season: Anything you can do, I can do better. This weekend as the country celebrates Memorial Day and the unofficial beginning of Summer, a little indie comedy, a creepy horror flick based on a play and an armada of dirty, wretched Pirates take on the box office with ferocity that has not been seen since, well… Last Summer. For those of us in the biz, we are ready to just sit back and enjoy the ride. You may want to do the same, savvy?

When Spider-Man 3 became the Widest Release in History earlier this month, it was quite obvious that it was only a bit of foreshadowing for the months to come. Big budgets, big action and big stars deserve huge releases! This week, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, the action-packed third installment in Disney’s most successful franchise since Mickey Mouse, drops in over 4,300 hundred theaters and countless numbers of screens across the United States. Filled with an abundance of slick CGI shots, the always entertaining Johnny Depp and enough pulse pounding action to make Michael Bay drool, At World’s End is set up for a huge weekend and an even bigger run throughout the summer.

If we look back to last year, Dead Man’s Chest opened on July 7^th and racked up over $1 Billion Worldwide before it left theaters on December 7^th. This year, At World’s End gets a two month headstart, and despite some competition from Transformers come July, it should enjoy a similarly long reign of the Box Office. Why? Because even though it is 3 hours long, it is the first film all year that may bring tons of movie goers out for a second showing. Spider-Man 3 was ultimately a dud, a disappointment to fans and non-fans alike. Pirates will be nothing of the sort; a fact that should lead it to the Summer’s ultimate buried treasure: a big pile of box office gold.

Also hitting theaters this week is William Friedkin’s Bug, starring Ashley Judd and Michael Shannon (World Trade Center). It wasn’t screened widely for critics, but it has all the makings of being uber-creepy. Here at FSR, we have sent our resident horror guru Kevin Carr to see it and we should have a review up by Friday evening.

And not to be outdone, the very intelligent and warmhearted comedy from the late Adrienne Shelly, Waitress, expands by about 500 theaters giving more and more folks the chance to enjoy what has become one of the sweetest and most enjoyable little films of the year. If you are looking for a film that will make you laugh, make you cry and doesn’t include any flying spiders or dirty pirates, Waitress should be at the top of your list.

But enough jabber, it is time to talk about how these and other films will perform over this Memorial Day weekend. Look for POTC: At World’s End to give Spider-Man 3’s record breaking opening weekend a run for its money but fall a bit short. For Pirates, it is a marathon not a sprint. For Bug, it is way down the list it goes, buried beneath all of the other box office powerhouses still looming large in the top 10. Waitress however, should see a solid lift this weekend as more theaters will certainly help its cause.

With that said, let’s see how the rest of the top 10 should play out:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (Disney) - $145 million
2. Shrek the Third (Paramount) - $80 million
3. Spider-Man 3 (Sony) - $22 million
4. Bug (Lionsgate) - $6 million
5. 28 Weeks Later (Fox Atomic) - $5 million
6. Waitress (Fox Searchlight) - $4.5 million
7. Disturbia (Paramount/Dreamworks) - $4 million
8. Georgia Rule(Universal) - $2.5 million
9. Delta Farce (Lionsgate) - $1.5 million
10. Hot Fuzz (Warner Bros.) - $1 million

That’s the way I see it, if you think otherwise please feel free to speak your mind in the comment area below!

Have a Great Weekend and don’t forget to catch “Fat Guys at the Movies” on Monday May 28 as we roll out our new 2 show per week format!

Read more articles by Neil Miller