Film School Rejects » Box Office

New Moon Topples The Dark Knight’s Opening Day Record

Neil Miller — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 18:28:47 +0000

Despite my clear disdain for the latest entry in the Twilight series, as written in my review, I must admit that Summit Entertainment is doing something right. The marketing arm of Summit, that is. The production arm is having some trouble assembling a creative team that can deliver a movie that’s more than fan-service, but those marketers seem to be taking things to the next level.

Reports are coming in today that The Twilight Saga: New Moon not only broke the midnight opening record with $26.3 million at 3,514 theaters, but it has also passed The Dark Knight ($67.1m) and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($62m) for the all-time highest opening day record, earning an estimated $72.7 million on Friday (11/20). This is more than double the opening day take of the first Twilight film, which earned $35.9 million on the same November weekend in 2008.

Many pundits around the web are talking about the potential for New Moon to overtake The Dark Knight’s 3-day record of $158 million, but I’m not sure I would go that far so soon. We have to remember that the Twilight box office take was very front-loaded. The first film opened to $35 million, then doubled its take over the rest of the weekend to earn $69 million on opening weekend. In order for New Moon to earn over $158m, it would have to more than double it’s $71m opening day take. Don’t be surprised if it gets to $130-140 million range by the end of the weekend.

The Reject Report Takes a Bite Out of New Moon

John Cairns — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 03:48:50 +0000

Welcome to this weekend’s Reject Report where we once again look into the crystal ball to figure out what the domestic gross is going to be. We are in for a very busy next several days of box office activity. A week from now is the U.S. Thanksgiving, so we will see four flicks go wide on Wednesday in advance of that holiday period. This weekend we have three movies going wide: The Blind Side, Planet 51, and you guessed it, The Twilight Saga: New Moon. Based on the coverage I’ve seen on TV, though, it’s as if New Moon is the only movie out there, because that’s all that anyone is talking about.

Before we talk about New Moon, I will start off with the other movies rolling out this week beginning with Planet 51. This is an animated feature rolling out in about 3,000 theaters, and its about this astronaut named “Chuck” Baker who finds himself on Planet 51 and ends up being the “alien”. Fun stuff. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is Chuck, and folks like Jessica Biel, Justin Long, Gary Oldman, Seann William Scott and others provide voices. Sony Pictures is releasing this flick.

Watch the Planet 51 trailer:

My guess is that this movie is going to get swamped. Instead of people thinking about Planet 51, people are going ape over New Moon. I think this flick is going for the counter-programming crowd so I am anticipating something in the $14 million range.

Next is The Blind Side, featuring a very blond Sandra Bullock — and also Tim McGraw. The movie is based on the 2006 book “The Blind Side: Evolution of a Game” by Michael Lewis. It’s the story of Michael Oher, a young African American who rises from homelessness and poverty to become an All-American offensive left tackle in college football. Quinton Aaron plays Oger, and Bullock and McGraw play the family who takes him in.

Watch The Blind Side trailer:

My feeling is that this flick is probably headed for less than Planet 51, in the $13 million range — though I never count out Sandra Bullock to outperform at theaters these days. It’s rolling out in a few more theaters than Planet 51 is, so I’m expecting these two to do fairly even business, but for whatever reason football movies don’t seem to really do booming business at the box office. I’m just thinking back to how poorly Leatherheads did when it came out. That’s just my feeling. Besides, a lot of football fans would rather be home watching football than going to see a football movie. My two cents.

Finally, on to The Twilight Saga: New Moon and there isn’t much more than I can say that hasn’t already been said. Maybe the less said by me the better, because I find these Twilight fans to be absolutely crazy and maybe even evil, some of them.

This is the return of the vampire love story, played again by actors Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson. These two have been all over the magazines and the press is all over them, which tells you all you need to know about the obsession level of the people who are hooked on this franchise.

Watch the Twilight: New Moon trailer:

Now, already Fandango and MovieTickets.com have reported that presales of New Moon have broken the record for sellouts already and ranks as the Number One advance seller of all time — ahead of The Dark Knight, Transformers 2, and these other blockbusters. The Movietickets.com record for pre-sold sellouts was actually held by Star Wars Episode III: The Revenge of the Sith, and as of Wednesday New Moon has that movie all beat with 2,100 sellouts.

The midnight shows are, from what I can tell, sold out all over the place. The folks at Summit Entertainment, from what I’ve read, are deeply worried about all the talk of sellouts and are worried that will discourage people from fighting the lineups to see the movie, as they say there are still plenty of tickets available.

Now, I’ve heard all this hype before from these online ticket sellers about these upcoming movies, with these claims a movie was going to be a bigger hit than it actually turned out to be — but I happen to believe New Moon is going to be a huge, huge hit. Bigger than the last Twilight, even. I am predicting $100 million for New Moon.

That much?! Really? Yes, I think so. As I said, these Twilight fans are crazy for this movie, and there seem to be a lot of them. Get ready to see this movie clean up right through the holiday next week.

My prediction for this weekend is as follows:

The Twilight Saga: New Moon $100 million
2012 $29 million
A Christmas Carol $15 million
Planet 51 $14 million
The Blind Side $13 million
Precious $9 million
The Men Who Stare at Goats $3.6 million
Michael Jackson’s This Is It $3 million
Couples Retreat $2.5 million
Paranormal Activity $2.1 million

That’s it for now! See you later this weekend when we count up all the loot that New Moon made and see what records went by the wayside — right here with the Box Office Results edition of the Reject Report.

New Moon Sells More Advanced Tickets Than The Second Coming

Neil Miller — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:02:57 +0000

Online ticket seller Fandango is reporting that The Twilight Saga: New Moon has sold more pre-release tickets online than any other film in the provider’s ten-year history. This of course, has nothing to do with the predictions of the Myans and the upcoming apocalypse, despite popular opinion.

According to a press release sent out yesterday, the record was achieved on Saturday evening around 8:00p EST. Thousands of Thursday night midnight showtimes for New Moon are already sold out across the country, from Albany, Georgia to Yuba City, California. Yet New Moon tickets continue to be available. To meet the fan demand, the nation’s top theater owners are regularly posting brand new showtimes on additional screens.

The top 5 Advance Ticket-Sellers on Fandango (as of November 15, 2009) are now as follows:

The Twilight Saga: New Moon (2009)
Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith (2005)
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
The Dark Knight (2008)
Twilight (2008)

You can stay tuned late in the week, as we will be seeing and reviewing New Moon on Wednesday evening. Trust us, we’re looking forward to it. In the mean time, we must know: do you have your New Moon opening weekend tickets yet?

2012 Scares Up $65 Million at the Box Office

John Cairns — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 21:33:15 +0000

Well, it was a big box office Tsunami for 2012, just as everyone predicted — except maybe the Mayans, who were busy predicting other things. Years from now people are going to look back at 2012 and say, “Oh yes, 2012. A very good year. A very good box office opening, too.”

2012 had a $23 million Friday night open and cruised to a $65 million domestic opening in North America. It is not a November record and not even Roland Emmerich’s best domestic open (The Day After Tomorrow still has to take its spot at $68 million), but it is still in line with the kind of big openings we have become used to in November, which has become as big a month for the box office as the summer months. Worldwide, the movie raked in $225 million this weekend, including $17.2 million in France and $15.3 million in Russia.

Heck, 2012 needed an opening like this to even come close to making its money back, because the movie cost something like $200 million to make. The folks at Sony must be breathing a little easier – at least the studio won’t be bankrupt. I guess you could say the box office showing wasn’t the end of the world (hee hee hee).

A big story was the big numbers put up by some movies in limited release. A big surprise was the showing of Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire, which was only in 174 locations but made $6,090,000 for a whopping $19,095 a theater this weekend. Also in limited release this weekend was The Fantastic Mr. Fox, which made $260,000 from four theaters. I’ll have more to say about both these movies when they expand in time for Thanksgiving.

Our nominee for Box Office Loser of the Week is Pirate Radio, which missed the Top Ten with a $2,869,000 opening. Too bad.

Overall. the box office weekend looked like this.

2012 – $65,000,000
A Christmas Carol (2009) – $22,325,000
The Men Who Stare at Goats – $6,200,000
Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire – $6,090,000
Michael Jackson’s This Is It – $5,100,000
The Fourth Kind – $4,744,000
Couples Retreat – $4,253,000
Paranormal Activity – $4,200,000
Law Abiding Citizen – $3,932,000
The Box – $3,185,000

That is all for now. Stay tuned for a busy Thanksgiving edition when we look ahead to the potential big haul of The Twilight Saga: New Moon. See you then.

The Reject Report Preps for the End of the World in 2012

John Cairns — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 08:24:45 +0000

Well, the end of the world is coming to a theater near you this weekend, and that will be the main focus here at the Reject Report. Yes, the long-awaited disaster epic 2012 is finally upon us and it is sure to be one big hit. That’s pretty much the main order of business beyond a few limited releases this weekend.

There is, though, one other wide release besides 2012 this weekend. It is Pirate Radio, and it stars Philip Seymour Hoffman, Bill Nighy and Rhys Ifans in a story about a jolly band of rebel deejays. It’s set in the era of those outlaw pirate radio stations that used to broadcast to the British Isles from boats in the North Sea in the Sixties. Fun stuff. Richard Curtis writes and directs.

Personally, I’m probably more interested in seeing Pirate Radio this weekend, mainly because I’m a sucker for anything British from the Sixties, whether it be Austin Powers or any other movie. Still, it’s only in 882 locations so I see maybe a $3.4 million domestic haul for this one. In a sure sign of trouble, the folks at Focus Features changed the name of the movie already. The original title was going to be The Boat that Rocked. Actually, that was probably a more interesting title, but I’ll still see the movie and see if I like it.

Watch the Pirate Radio trailer:

Now onto the end of the world, and our friend the director Roland Emmerich has done it again with yet another one of his apocalyptic movies. He’s made Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow and a whole host of movies. Now he takes on 2012, named for the year in the Mayan calendar when the end of the world is supposed to happen. The all-star cast features John Cusack, Amanda Peet, Thandie Newton, Danny Glover, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Oliver Platt and Woody Harrelson. Apparently there’s a lot of destruction to look forward to in the movie, including the destruction of Yellowstone National Park, a tsunami engulfing Washington D.C., and a host of other terrible things.

Now on to my fearless prediction. Personally, I fully expect the critics to completely crucify this movie (as they have done to Roland Emmerich in the past), but I also fully expect the audiences to ignore the critics and go see it anyway. For whatever reason — the American psyche, I dunno — it just seems domestic audiences will rush to see apocalypse movies and flicks with a lot of end-of-the-world death and destruction. To me, this is the kind of movie American audiences will eat up, with lots of nutty stuff happening that fits right in with what the conspiracy theorists and doomsday-type people like to believe. My prediction is $63 million for 2012.

Watch the 2012 trailer:

And here is my fearless prediction of how the weekend will unfold for the Top Ten:

2012 $63 million
A Christmas Carol $17 million
The Men Who Stare at Goats $8.5 million
Michael Jackson’s This is It $8.1 million
The Fourth Kind $6.5 million
Paranormal Activity $5 million
The Box $4.2 million
Couples Retreat $3.7 million
Pirate Radio $3.4 million
Law Abiding Citizen $3.3 million

That’s it! Back to see if my box office prediction for 2012 comes true later this weekend here at the Reject Report. (Hope the 2012 doomsday predictions don’t come true, though.)

Disney’s A Christmas Carol Scares Up $31 Million

John Cairns — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 01:51:32 +0000

Here are my thoughts on what happened this weekend at the box office, with Disney’s A Christmas Carol leading the way at $31 million.

I know the $31 million is lower than some people thought it would do, and Nikki Finke was freaking out this weekend with headlines bashing Jim Carrey and implying he had another flop on his hands, but to be honest most movies would kill for a showing like this.

I think the main reason it didn’t make it up to $40 million had a lot to do with the fact that it was released the week after Halloween and not at the usual times that these Christmas movies are released (ie. Thanksgiving). I guess they were going after the post-Halloween fright crowd with the darker subject matter and so on — but who’s kidding who, here. This is a Christmas movie and the Disney folks were simply hoping Christmas would come early.

The other new releases did about as well as could be expected, though The Box could really have done better. And really, I thought The Men Who Stare at Goats did pretty well considering it’s an Oscar season movie and the rest of it. I expect it to do steady business over the next few weeks.

Michael Jackson’s This Is It may have opened more modestly than expected but its business has been steady, and its $14 million haul is only a 39.7 percent drop from a week ago. All in all, not too shabby.

Uh, Paranormal Activity’s gross is up to $97 million domestic and it should hit $100 million within days.

That’s pretty much it. The box office results are as follows:

A Christmas Carol (2009)- $31,000,000
Michael Jackson’s This Is It – $14,000,000
The Men Who Stare at Goats – $13,309,000
The Fourth Kind – $12,521,000
Paranormal Activity – $8,600,000
The Box – $7,855,000
Couples Retreat – $6,428,000
Law Abiding Citizen – $6,172,000
Where the Wild Things Are – $4,225,000
Astro Boy – $2,588,00

That is all for now — back with more later this week with another edition of the Reject Report!

The Reject Report Sings a Christmas Carol, Stares At Goats

John Cairns — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:51:10 +0000

Welcome to another Reject Report! As you can tell it’s November, Halloween is now over and Christmas is right around the corner. How do we know this? Because the Christmas movies have started with A Christmas Carol. We also have the horror flick The Box, the thriller The Fourth Kind, and the Oscar season movie The Men Who Stare at Goats.

So let’s get on with it. We start this week with The Men Who Stare at Goats, starring George Clooney, Ewan McGregor, Kevin Spacey, Jeff Bridges and Robert Patrick . It’s freaky stuff about a journalist who ends up going to Iraq and meeting up with this former member of the U.S. Army’s First Earth Battallion, a military unit that uses psychic and paramilitary powers in their missions.

This flick rolled out to rave reviews at the Toronto International Film Festival earlier this year, and I expect it to do good business over a number of weeks, but probably not right away. It just seems like every Oscar-season George Clooney movie is guaranteed to make in the range of $10 or $11 million in its opening weekend and not much else. Anyhow, that’s my prediction: $11 million for The Men Who Stare at Goats.

Watch the Men Who Stare at Goats trailer:

Next is The Fourth Kind, starring Milla Jovovich, a sci-fi thriller about an ongoing unsolved mystery in Nome, Alaska involving alien abductions. Elias Koteas and Will Patton also star.

This is in slightly more theaters than The Men Who Stare at Goats, and I think it will probably make about as much money. I’m guessing only $10.5 million, though — I have a feeling Goats might sneak past it based on its word of mouth. Who knows, though.

Watch the trailer for The Fourth Kind:

Third is The Box, a horror flick starring Cameron Diaz and James Marsden as a couple who receive a box that has within it strange powers. It contains a button, and some mystery man arrives at their door (Frank Langhella) and tells them they will receive $1,000,000 if they press the button, but someone they don’t know will die because of it.

Well, I dunno if this movie is going to do well or not. I wonder if we are all a bit horrored-out after the run of movies we have had. I think Halloween is over and people want to move on with their lives, so I’m predicting $13 million for The Box.

Watch the trailer for The Box:

Finally there is Disney’s A Christmas Carol from famed writer/director Robert Zemeckis. It’s basically his motion-capture animated take on the famous Ebenezer Scrooge tale, and it’s in Disney Digital 3D and IMAX 3D! Jim Carrey plays Scrooge and other roles, and there is an all-star cast of voices including Gary Oldman, Cary Elwes, Colin Firth, Bob Hoskins, Robin Wright Penn, you name it.

Whenever I hear that a movie is in 3D, I automatically bump that movie’s gross up a notch, because everyone knows 3D is a money train these days. I suppose it’s a little early for Christmas, but I remember what happened when that Vince Vaughn Four Christmases movie rolled out to a lot of dough. And I know this is a completely different style of movie, but I have the feeling that just having Christmas in the title will be enough for a lot of business. I am predicting $44 Million for Disney’s A Christmas Carol.

Watch the trailer for A Christmas Carol:

So there you have it. Also, I am predicting that you are finally going to see both Paranormal Activity and Michael Jackson’ This Is It start to fade at the box office. The Jackson movie has been in first place all week, and the Paranormal Activity phenomenon seems to have crested. I see both falling well back this weekend.

My predicted order of finish:

Disney’s A Christmas Carol $44 million
The Box $13 million
Michael Jackson’s This Is It $12.5 million
The Men Who Stare at Goats $11 million
Paranormal Activity $10.7 million
The Fourth Kind $10.5 million
Law Abiding Citizen $5.5 million
Couples Retreat $4 million
Where the Wild Things Are $3 million
Saw VI $2.5 million

And that is all for now! Back at the end of the weekend to see what transpires at the box office here at the Reject Report.

For Michael Jackson, This Was It… Sort of

John Cairns — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:16:11 +0000

Well, so much for all the lousy hype about how great that Michael Jackson movie would do. Michael Jackson’s This Is It made only $21 million on the weekend, and with its $3.7 million Thursday haul and $7.4 million Wednesday haul, its grand total is $32.5 million. Big deal!

The studio made it sound as if this movie was going to be this monster hit in the USA, with sellouts everywhere etc. etc. Well, Paranormal Activity has been the one with the sellouts since it opened, and it made $16.5 million this weekend, almost taking down Michael Jackson. It came very close on both Friday and Saturday, in fact, to topping Jackson. On Friday it got $6 million to Jackson’s $7.8 million, and on Saturday the margin was $7.1 million for Jackson to $6.5 million for Paranormal Activity. Overall, the haul for Paranormal Activity since it opened is $84 million.

The bottom line is that Michael Jackson underperformed compared to what everyone expected, while Paranormal Activity continues to overperform. Still, a first place finish isn’t bad, especially considering that the star of the movie is dead. This sort of repeats what Heath Ledger was able to pull off with The Dark Knight — I guess. I hate to be macabre around here but it is Halloween.

To be fair, This Is It did great business internationally, raking in $68.5 million. So yeah, It was a hit, but not that big of one in the grand scheme of things compared to other blockbusters.

The totals for the weekend:

Michael Jackson’s This Is It – $21,300,000
Paranormal Activity – $16,540,000
Law Abiding Citizen – $7,303,000
Couples Retreat – $6,097,000
-Saw VI $5,560,000
Where the Wild Things Are – $5,081,000
The Stepfather (2009) – $3,400,000
Astro Boy – $3,035,000
Amelia – $3,000,000
Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant - $2,809,000

And that is it for me. Back later this week for more box office predictions, some of which I might actually get right, here at the Reject Report.

The Reject Report Believes This Is It

John Cairns — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 04:55:11 +0000

Welcome to another edition of the Reject Report, and there is one movie, just one movie, that anyone really is focusing on this weekend. It is Michael Jackson’s This Is It, and it goes wide into 3,481 locations on Wednesday.

This is, of course, the long-awaited behind-the-scenes look at Michael Jackson in the last days of his life as he prepared his much-anticipated comeback tour, with footage shot at The Forum and Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. It’s directed by Kenny Ortega and features interviews, backstage footage, you name it, as Jackson prepared for his sold-out shows in London to launch his return. Here’s a look at the trailer:

There really isn’t much I need to say here. I fully expect this movie will have the biggest October open in history, as we have heard all kinds of reports of sellouts in major cities. I am looking at a Wednesday haul of $20 million, a Thursday haul of $15 million and a weekend total somewhere in the $46 million range. And that is my prediction for the weekend. He may not have lived to see it, but I’d say the comeback is a success regardless of whether Jackson is alive or not. Already the movie has made $2.2 million in Tuesday late-show showings and was up to $2.2 million by noon Wednesday, so it’s on its way.

The weekend haul ought to look like this:

Michael Jackson’s This Is It $46 million
Paranormal Activity $19 million
Where the Wild Things Are $8 million
Law Abiding Citizen $7.5 million
Saw VI $7 million
Couples Retreat $6.5 million
Astro Boy $4 million
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $3.6 million
The Stepfather $3.1 million
Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant $2.9 million

That is it and that is all. See you on the weekend when we count all the loot Michael Jackson made in death — here at the Reject Report.

Paranormal Activity Cuts Saw VI Down, Wins Weekend

John Cairns — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:14:25 +0000

Well, so much for all my hype about how this was going to be a duel to the death between Paranormal Activity and Saw VI. I guess the big shock is how easily Paranormal Activity won the weekend. It hauled in $22 million, compared to only $14.8 million for Saw VI, which was itself only barely ahead of Where the Wild Things Are at $14.4 million.

Not only that — the theaters remained packed solid for this flick, now up to $62 million and showing no signs of slowing down. This is a movie that was only in 1,945 locations, way less than Saw VI and, in fact, every other movie in the Top 10 — and it managed to not only beat the competition, but kill the competition. Quite an impressive performance. In fact it won every day for the entire weekend, beating Saw VI by $7.5 million to $7 million on Friday alone.

This is sure to come as good news to the many people (so I’m told) who hate the Saw franchise — a series which usually opens to first place at the weelend box office. Usually the Saw movies open in the $30-million plus range, but this one suffered the worst open in franchise history! Still, there are even more sequels planned ahead, a fact which I am sure will inspire the Saw detractors to slit their own wrists. Guys, cheer up — they lost. Maybe this jolt of reality is what is needed to turn the franchise around and make the next Saw movie a good one.

Firmly in “flop” territory is Astro Boy with a humbling $7 million haul. Doing even worse was Amelia, the poorly-received Amelia Earhart biopic starring Hilary Swank. Its haul is estimated at $4,025,000 for an average of $4,921. You would have thought it would have done a little better than that, at least a Top Ten.

Here’s a look at how the box office shaped up:

Paranormal Activity – $22,000,000
Saw VI – $14,800,000
Where the Wild Things Are – $14,420,000
Law Abiding Citizen – $12,713,000
Couples Retreat – $11,097,000
Astro Boy – $7,017,000
The Stepfather (2009) – $6,500,000
Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant – $6,348,000
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $5,600,000
Zombieland – $4,300,000

I hope Paranormal Activity enjoys its well-deserved moment of glory this weekend at the box office. It is sure not to last long, because Michael Jackson’s This Is It will be rolling out later this week and the theaters are sure to be jammed for that one, too. That will be what we will be serving up next, right here at the Reject Report.

The Reject Report Anticipates a Box Office Saw-off

John Cairns — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:08:19 +0000

It’s a pre-Halloween edition of the Reject Report! Yes, October 31 is fast approaching, and this weekend promises to by scary-good at the theatres for moviegoers interested in scary movies. In fact, it’s been a banner year for horror movies at the box office. The winning Paranormal Activity continues to roll, and Saw VI will be rolling out, as well as Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant and the reissue of Tim Burton’s The Nightmare before Christmas (in limited release). And we also have Astro Boy.

First, as we have been doing the last number of weekends we will lead off with the continuing Paranormal Activity story, which keeps on going and going like the Energizer Bunny at the theaters. It still isn’t in a multitude of theaters – still under 800 – but it is raking in some big, big audience numbers. On Monday night, it made $1,967,921, almost beating the highly-regarded weekend box office champ Where the Wild Things Are. On Tuesday, Paranormal Activity hauled in $1,785,846, which also came razor-close to beating the Tuesday night winner Law Abiding Citizen ($1,801,997).

Finally, on Wednesday night, Paranormal Activity made it all the way to the top. Number One. $1,639,240. It was a close win over Where the Wild Things Are and Law Abiding Citizen, but it counts.

Now Paranormal Activity is going to go wide to nearly 2,000 theater locations across North America and with Halloween on its way the momentum for this movie just keeps on building. The theatre average has been dropping from weekend to weekend – it was at $49,000 two weekends ago and last weekend it was $25,000. I could see the average dropping again to, say, $13,000. So multiplied by 1945 locations, that roughly comes to — over $25 million?!?! Holy crow, this movie is going to be doing even better business than last weekend. If the theatre average is higher, we could be looking at some serious money rolling in — possibly over $30 million. Look out for Paranormal Activity, folks. It has already hit Number One and could well stay there this weekend.

I now move on to Saw VI which is opening in roughly 3,000 theatre locations and expects to do battle for the box office title this weekend. It’s yet another in the long series of movies based on that villain Jigsaw. Based on the ploy synopsis I’ve read, it the detective Hoffman emerges as the successor to Jigsaw. Here’s the trailer:

This flick always does good business whenever it is released, but it doesn’t absolutely steamroll at the box office. My feeling is this will win Friday night — and then that will be it, and Paranormal Activity will take over. I might as well end the suspense now: $23 million is my prediction for Saw VI. I just think Paranormal Activity is going to be too strong.

Next up is Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant, starring John C. Reilly, Josh Hutcherson, and Chris Massoglia. The movie is the film adaptation of the book series The saga of Darren Chan from author Darren Shan. Massoglia plays the title character Shan, a teenage boy who stumbles upon a travelling freakshow and meets up with this strange man, who turns out to be a vampire. And weird things start to happen. Yes, indeed, folks, this is a vampire movie. Well, what did you expect? The vampire fad is still going strong just like last fall when Twilight came out in November.

How much money is this one going to make? Well, how about a nice round scary number like $13 million? Hey, Halloween’s coming. One of these flicks has got to make $13 million.

Watch the Vampire’s Assistant trailer:

Next up is Astro Boy, and this is exactly what you expect it to be. It is being released by Summit Entertainment and is the big screen adaptation of the famous Japanese cartoon from Sixties TV. Except this one is CGI. The voices include voices of Freddie Highmore as Astro Boy, Kristen Bell, Nathan Lane, Eugene Levy, Matt Lucas, Donald Sutherland and Bill Nighy.

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be another flop on the scale of Speed Racer? At least Speed Racer had a coolness factor, but Astro Boy is just, well, Astro Boy. Honestly, if they had done a remake of some Hanna-Barbera cartoon I could see it doing great business, but this one is only going to make $14 million.

Watch the Astro Boy trailer:

Finally, I think I ought to mention the movie Amelia, starring Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart. This opens in over 800 locations and should sneak into the Top Ten with around $5 million.

Watch the Amelia trailer:

So summing up, it should be a saw-off (yes, another bad pun) at the box office this weekend. You know, the horror fans have complained for years about how studios have shafted them by not releasing horror movies in October where they belong. I don’t think there can be any gripes about the situation this year with about a week left to Halloween weekend. Here’s my predicted order of finish:

Paranormal Activity $25 million
Saw VI $23 million
Where the Wild Things Are $16 million
Astro Boy $14 million
Law Abiding Citizen $13.5 million
Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant $13 million
Couples Retreat $9 million
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $5.5 million
The Stepfather $5.2 million
Amelia $5 million

That’s it for now! See you at the end of the weekend when we determine who takes home all the loot here at the Reject Report!

Where the Wild Things Are Begins With a $32 Million Rumpus

John Cairns — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 19:34:07 +0000

Well, it was an interesting weekend at the theaters, though perhaps not as earth-shattering as some had hoped. As expected, Where the Wild Things Are was the weekend’s big winner, with an opening haul of $32 million. Frankly, though, I had expected a much bigger opening. I thought there was no way this movie was going to do a worse opening than Couples Retreat last week, but it did: $32 million compared to $35 mil. Shows you what I know.

There were people in the press jumping the gun and declaring that Where the Wild Things Are was on track for an October opening record after it opened to $12 million, but the Saturday haul wasn’t much better than the Friday haul, so that’s why it ended up where it ended up. Frankly, I’m surprised it didn’t set the October record, because there was a lot of good buzz out there for this movie. Probably, though, what will happen is it will have less of a drop at the box office next week and end up making money for several weekends in a row.

(But I could be wrong on that. I’m wrong on a lot of things.)

The big surprise was how well Law Abiding Citizen did: $21 million, just ahead of Paranormal Activity. That showing represents a big box office win for Jamie Foxx and Gerard Butler, and yet another total defeat for the nation’s film critcs who crucified the movie, only to see it make a lot miore money than most everyone expected.

Paranormal Activity continues to roll now that it has gone into wide release in over 700 locations. It’s $20 million haul is its best weekend yet, and its screen average for the weekend is $26,530 — still a phenomenal showing. What I want to know is how many more locations will be added to the distribution next week. This flick shows no signs of slowing down at the box office and its overall gross is now up to $33 million. Not bad at all for a $15,000 investment.

Finally, The Stepfather made $12 million this weekend, which is also higher than what people predicted. All in all, I’d say it was a pretty good October weekend at the box office.

The results:

Where the Wild Things Are – $32,470,000
Law Abiding Citizen – $21,250,000
Paranormal Activity – $20,163,000
Couples Retreat – $17,949,000
The Stepfather (2009) – $12,300,000
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $8,100,000
Zombieland – $7,800,000
Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) – $3,011,000
Surrogates – $1,922,000
The Invention of Lying – $1,905,000

That is all for now! See you later this week as we preview the weekend box office again at the Reject Report!

The Reject Report Goes Where the Wild Things Are

John Cairns — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 18:34:07 +0000

Welcome to another Reject Report, and this weekend we look forward to the much-anticipated Where the Wild Things Are, based on the best-selling children’s book. Also rolling out is The Stepfather and Law Abiding Citizen, plus we have a Paranormal Activity update as well. All that and more in this weekend’s edition!

We might as well start with Paranormal Activity, which continues to roll at the box office in limited release. Last weekend it clawed its way past $7 million, and by the middle of this week it was ranking as high as third place in the overall box office. Not bad for a flick that was in 159 locations. Well, the campaign to roll this movie out in wide release has succeeded: Paramount got the 1,000,000 demands they wanted from the fans, so the movie is going wide in 760 locations.

I’m doing a quick calculation here and by my estimation that should mean a haul in the neighborhood of $25 million. It could be even more. This horror flick is doing an insane amount of business in limited release, and I think this movie is going to be in more and more theaters with every passing week. It really is a phenomenon. But right now I say Paranormal Activity will haul in $25 million this weekend and climb as high as second place in the overall box office standings.

Watch the Paranormal Activity trailer:

Next, there is Law Abiding Citizen, a thriller starring Jamie Foxx, Gerard Butler and Viola Davis. It’s rolling out in 2,700 locations. The story is about some poor guy who decides to take matters into his own hands after the DA lets his family’s killers go free.

Interesting stuff – but these action thrillers don’t seem to do the kind of business they once did at the box office. Given the modest theater count I think a modest haul around $14 million is the likely finish for Law Abiding Citizen.

Watch the Law Abiding Citizen trailer:

The Stepfather is a horror thriller from the Screen Gems folks and is yet another remake of a 1980s horror movie — this one from 1987. Do you get the feeling of deja vu when you go to a horror movie these days? This one stars Penn Badgley, who plays Sela Ward’s son in the movie, and he suspects the man she is about to marry in the movie, David Harris (played by Dylan Walsh), may not be such a good guy.

This one rolls out in about 2,700 locations as well, but I see a much more modest haul in the $8 million range. I just think that Paranormal Activity is going to steal this movie’s business.

Watch the trailer for The Stepfather:

Last but definitely not least, Where the Wild Things Are is Spike Jonze’s film version of Maurice Sendak’s 1963 children’s book. The cast includes Max Records, Catherine Keener, Mark Ruffalo, Lauren Ambrose, Chris Cooper, James Gandolfini, Catherine O’Hara and Forest Whitaker. Records stars as Max, who is this runaway kid who finds himself sailing off to an island inhabited by the Wild Things, who make him their ruler.

I’m pretty much convinced this movie is going to be the hands-down winner at the box office this weekend. It’s aimed at a family audience and has some cool monsters, and has a wide release into 3,700 locations. I figure this movie should at least do better than Couples Retreat did last week. I am going out on a limb and predicting $41 million for these Wild Things.

Watch the Where the Wild Things Are trailer:

So here is how I see the box office shaping up for this weekend:

Where the Wild Things Are $41 million
Paranormal Activity $25 million
Couples Retreat $17 million
Law Abiding Citizen $14 million
Zombieland $9 million
Tne Stepfather $8 million
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $7 million
Toy Story/Toy Story 2 $5 million
Surrogates $2.1 million
Whip It $1.8 million

And that is it for now! See you at the end of the weekend to find out if these predictions were any good here at the Reject Report!

Scary Good Box Office for Couples Retreat, Paranormal Activity

John Cairns — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 02:21:06 +0000

The numbers are in from a surprising weekend at the theaters, with two movies, Couples Retreat and Paranormal Activity, outperforming a lot of the expectations out there by a considerable margin. Seven million for Paranormal Activity? Thirty-five for Couples Retreat? Are you kidding me? No.

We’ll first deal with Couples Retreat, which opened to $12.5 million on Friday and cruised to a haul of $35.3 million.

I know what some people are saying: thirty-five million bucks — for this piece of junk??? This movie is at 13 percent at Rotten Tomatoes, folks, with scores much lower than a lot of the “fresh” movies that are all over the box office right now, yet its haul is the best opening weekend of the whole fall? Even our own Dr. Cole Abaius gave it a freaking D-plus. What gives?!

It’s easy to say, in unison, “I don’t get it” — but you can point to a number of obvious reasons why the box office was as good as it was, starting with the obvious fact that it had no competition in wide release at all. That’s number one. Second, never underestimate the power of women who wears a bikini to haul in the guys — in this case, several women. And the skimpy clothes on some of the guys attracted the ladies who made up most of the audiences. Third, never underestimate the power of Vince Vaughn to lift the box office of a movie — any movie. Whether its Four Christmases or The Break-Up, or any movie, really, Vaughn seems to deliver the moola just by being in the cast — although, on the flip side, he sure didn’t deliver the moola at all for Vince Vaughn’s Wild West Comedy Show. Why that one flopped so badly, I don’t know.

Finally, people are in the mood for a movie where you could leave your brain in neutral at home. One guy told me that he wanted to go see Couples Retreat not in spite of its stupidity, but because of it.

So there you go. Couples Retreat is a hit. And the critics of America have tomatoes all over their faces, again. So what else is new. Anyway, that’s Couples Retreat.

The other big story is Paranormal Activity, and I can say I sort of saw this coming, but I didn’t forsee the extent of it. I knew something big was happening with this movie, that the buzz was through the roof, but I didn’t know how it would translate into money in 159 locations. Well, we got our answer now. This movie made not two million, not even five million, but over $7 million this weekend. It made $2.6 million on Friday alone and $2.8 million on Saturday. For the weekend, the movie’s average was $44,440. Its overall gross is already $8,280,000! And it isn’t even in wide release yet!

Suffice it to say that Paramount, the distributors, are going to go ahead with a wide release of Paranormal Activity sooner rather than later. A haul of $7 million in 159 locations is not just good, it’s unbelievable. This movie is going to be a blockbuster.

The results:

Couples Retreat – $35,340,000
Zombieland – $15,000,000
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $12,000,000
Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) – $7,674,000
Paranormal Activity – $7,066,000
Surrogates – $4,115,000
The Invention of Lying – $3,370,000
Whip It – $2,800,000
Capitalism: A Love Story – $2,700,000
Fame (2009) – $2,556,000

That is all for now. When we return later this coming week, we at the Reject Report go Where the Wild Things Are. See you then.

The Reject Report Heads Off on a Couples Retreat

John Cairns — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 05:25:43 +0000

Well, it makes it really easy to do a Reject Report column when only one new movie rolls out in wide release. It’s called Couples Retreat and it is the movie we will preview in this week’s box office report.

First, though, I want to talk about a movie that is still in limited release right now. It’s called Paranormal Activity and it has been a sensation everywhere it has been playing so far. It has been selling out midnight screenings and has already grossed a little over $1 million. Just on Wednesday night alone it grossed $100,000 in 33 locations, putting it ahead of flicks such as Jennifer’s Body, All About Steve and other movies. This weekend the movie rolls out in 44 cities in 159 locations and if the sellouts continue and the buzz continues for this movie it has a shot at a real wide release very soon. Already this movie is being compared to The Blair Witch Project in terms of the hype and excitement it has generated. Right now Paramount is saying that if they get a million demands for screenings, they will release the movie wide across the country. Last I checked it was at over 767,00 demands, so don’t be surprised one bit if the wide release for this flick comes sooner rather than later — and don’t be surprised if this movie becomes a big box-office hit.

You heard it here. I like to be ahead of the curve here at the Reject Report, and unfortunately I was a little late to the game in picking up on the phenomenon of this movie, but watch for Paranormal Activity to make some noise this weekend. I think it may just sneak its way into the top ten.

Watch the Paranormal Activity trailer:

Now onto Couples Retreat which is the big Vince Vaughn-Jon Favreau re-teaming from the movie Swingers. The cast also features Faizon Love, Jason Bateman, Kristin Davis, Kristen Bell, Malin Akerman, Kali Hawk, Jean Reno and Peter Serafinowicz. The flick is about four couples who go on a Couples Retreat on a tropical island Eden, a “Disneyland for Adults”, to try and spice up their relationships.

You’d think looking at the trailer that this would be a fun, sexy romp and a great date movie. It also has a captive audience because, heck, it’s the only new movie in wide release. Now, here’s the bad news. Apparently it sucks. I was over at Rotten Tomatoes and the critics are retreating out of the theaters en masse, giving this turd an 8 percent rating as of Thursday night.

Watch the Couples Retreat trailer:

Wow, that’s awful! I guess we’re overdue for one of these things, though. We’ve had a great run lately with a string of top-notch movies at the box office – Zombieland, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and a few others — so we are overdue for a big stinkaroo sooner rather than later. I actually think that this movie might just create some really bad buzz and that will depress the box office, so a movie that might otherwise have gotten up to $26 or $27 million will only do something in the range of $21 million.

So that is my prediction: $21 mil for Couples Retreat. Enough for first place, but nothing spectacular.

As for the order of finish for the next three days of this Columbus Day weekend, here is what I see happening:

Couples Retreat $21 million
Zombieland $15 million
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $11.5 million
Toy Story/Toy Story 2 $8.5 million
The Invention of Lying $4.5 million
Surrogates $4 million
Capitalism: A Love Story $3 million
Whip It $2.8 million
Fame $2.3 million
Paranormal Activity $2.2 million

There, I said it — Paranormal Activity sneaks into the top ten, and get ready for big things for this movie to start happening at the box office. That’s all for this edition. Stay tuned later this weekend as we give you the rundown of what went down at the box office, right here at the Reject Report!

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