Film School Rejects » Box Office

The Reject Report Sings a Christmas Carol, Stares At Goats

John Cairns — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:51:10 +0000

Welcome to another Reject Report! As you can tell it’s November, Halloween is now over and Christmas is right around the corner. How do we know this? Because the Christmas movies have started with A Christmas Carol. We also have the horror flick The Box, the thriller The Fourth Kind, and the Oscar season movie The Men Who Stare at Goats.

So let’s get on with it. We start this week with The Men Who Stare at Goats, starring George Clooney, Ewan McGregor, Kevin Spacey, Jeff Bridges and Robert Patrick . It’s freaky stuff about a journalist who ends up going to Iraq and meeting up with this former member of the U.S. Army’s First Earth Battallion, a military unit that uses psychic and paramilitary powers in their missions.

This flick rolled out to rave reviews at the Toronto International Film Festival earlier this year, and I expect it to do good business over a number of weeks, but probably not right away. It just seems like every Oscar-season George Clooney movie is guaranteed to make in the range of $10 or $11 million in its opening weekend and not much else. Anyhow, that’s my prediction: $11 million for The Men Who Stare at Goats.

Watch the Men Who Stare at Goats trailer:

Next is The Fourth Kind, starring Milla Jovovich, a sci-fi thriller about an ongoing unsolved mystery in Nome, Alaska involving alien abductions. Elias Koteas and Will Patton also star.

This is in slightly more theaters than The Men Who Stare at Goats, and I think it will probably make about as much money. I’m guessing only $10.5 million, though — I have a feeling Goats might sneak past it based on its word of mouth. Who knows, though.

Watch the trailer for The Fourth Kind:

Third is The Box, a horror flick starring Cameron Diaz and James Marsden as a couple who receive a box that has within it strange powers. It contains a button, and some mystery man arrives at their door (Frank Langhella) and tells them they will receive $1,000,000 if they press the button, but someone they don’t know will die because of it.

Well, I dunno if this movie is going to do well or not. I wonder if we are all a bit horrored-out after the run of movies we have had. I think Halloween is over and people want to move on with their lives, so I’m predicting $13 million for The Box.

Watch the trailer for The Box:

Finally there is Disney’s A Christmas Carol from famed writer/director Robert Zemeckis. It’s basically his motion-capture animated take on the famous Ebenezer Scrooge tale, and it’s in Disney Digital 3D and IMAX 3D! Jim Carrey plays Scrooge and other roles, and there is an all-star cast of voices including Gary Oldman, Cary Elwes, Colin Firth, Bob Hoskins, Robin Wright Penn, you name it.

Whenever I hear that a movie is in 3D, I automatically bump that movie’s gross up a notch, because everyone knows 3D is a money train these days. I suppose it’s a little early for Christmas, but I remember what happened when that Vince Vaughn Four Christmases movie rolled out to a lot of dough. And I know this is a completely different style of movie, but I have the feeling that just having Christmas in the title will be enough for a lot of business. I am predicting $44 Million for Disney’s A Christmas Carol.

Watch the trailer for A Christmas Carol:

So there you have it. Also, I am predicting that you are finally going to see both Paranormal Activity and Michael Jackson’ This Is It start to fade at the box office. The Jackson movie has been in first place all week, and the Paranormal Activity phenomenon seems to have crested. I see both falling well back this weekend.

My predicted order of finish:

Disney’s A Christmas Carol $44 million
The Box $13 million
Michael Jackson’s This Is It $12.5 million
The Men Who Stare at Goats $11 million
Paranormal Activity $10.7 million
The Fourth Kind $10.5 million
Law Abiding Citizen $5.5 million
Couples Retreat $4 million
Where the Wild Things Are $3 million
Saw VI $2.5 million

And that is all for now! Back at the end of the weekend to see what transpires at the box office here at the Reject Report.

For Michael Jackson, This Was It… Sort of

John Cairns — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:16:11 +0000

Well, so much for all the lousy hype about how great that Michael Jackson movie would do. Michael Jackson’s This Is It made only $21 million on the weekend, and with its $3.7 million Thursday haul and $7.4 million Wednesday haul, its grand total is $32.5 million. Big deal!

The studio made it sound as if this movie was going to be this monster hit in the USA, with sellouts everywhere etc. etc. Well, Paranormal Activity has been the one with the sellouts since it opened, and it made $16.5 million this weekend, almost taking down Michael Jackson. It came very close on both Friday and Saturday, in fact, to topping Jackson. On Friday it got $6 million to Jackson’s $7.8 million, and on Saturday the margin was $7.1 million for Jackson to $6.5 million for Paranormal Activity. Overall, the haul for Paranormal Activity since it opened is $84 million.

The bottom line is that Michael Jackson underperformed compared to what everyone expected, while Paranormal Activity continues to overperform. Still, a first place finish isn’t bad, especially considering that the star of the movie is dead. This sort of repeats what Heath Ledger was able to pull off with The Dark Knight — I guess. I hate to be macabre around here but it is Halloween.

To be fair, This Is It did great business internationally, raking in $68.5 million. So yeah, It was a hit, but not that big of one in the grand scheme of things compared to other blockbusters.

The totals for the weekend:

Michael Jackson’s This Is It – $21,300,000
Paranormal Activity – $16,540,000
Law Abiding Citizen – $7,303,000
Couples Retreat – $6,097,000
-Saw VI $5,560,000
Where the Wild Things Are – $5,081,000
The Stepfather (2009) – $3,400,000
Astro Boy – $3,035,000
Amelia – $3,000,000
Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant - $2,809,000

And that is it for me. Back later this week for more box office predictions, some of which I might actually get right, here at the Reject Report.

The Reject Report Believes This Is It

John Cairns — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 04:55:11 +0000

Welcome to another edition of the Reject Report, and there is one movie, just one movie, that anyone really is focusing on this weekend. It is Michael Jackson’s This Is It, and it goes wide into 3,481 locations on Wednesday.

This is, of course, the long-awaited behind-the-scenes look at Michael Jackson in the last days of his life as he prepared his much-anticipated comeback tour, with footage shot at The Forum and Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. It’s directed by Kenny Ortega and features interviews, backstage footage, you name it, as Jackson prepared for his sold-out shows in London to launch his return. Here’s a look at the trailer:

There really isn’t much I need to say here. I fully expect this movie will have the biggest October open in history, as we have heard all kinds of reports of sellouts in major cities. I am looking at a Wednesday haul of $20 million, a Thursday haul of $15 million and a weekend total somewhere in the $46 million range. And that is my prediction for the weekend. He may not have lived to see it, but I’d say the comeback is a success regardless of whether Jackson is alive or not. Already the movie has made $2.2 million in Tuesday late-show showings and was up to $2.2 million by noon Wednesday, so it’s on its way.

The weekend haul ought to look like this:

Michael Jackson’s This Is It $46 million
Paranormal Activity $19 million
Where the Wild Things Are $8 million
Law Abiding Citizen $7.5 million
Saw VI $7 million
Couples Retreat $6.5 million
Astro Boy $4 million
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $3.6 million
The Stepfather $3.1 million
Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant $2.9 million

That is it and that is all. See you on the weekend when we count all the loot Michael Jackson made in death — here at the Reject Report.

Paranormal Activity Cuts Saw VI Down, Wins Weekend

John Cairns — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 20:14:25 +0000

Well, so much for all my hype about how this was going to be a duel to the death between Paranormal Activity and Saw VI. I guess the big shock is how easily Paranormal Activity won the weekend. It hauled in $22 million, compared to only $14.8 million for Saw VI, which was itself only barely ahead of Where the Wild Things Are at $14.4 million.

Not only that — the theaters remained packed solid for this flick, now up to $62 million and showing no signs of slowing down. This is a movie that was only in 1,945 locations, way less than Saw VI and, in fact, every other movie in the Top 10 — and it managed to not only beat the competition, but kill the competition. Quite an impressive performance. In fact it won every day for the entire weekend, beating Saw VI by $7.5 million to $7 million on Friday alone.

This is sure to come as good news to the many people (so I’m told) who hate the Saw franchise — a series which usually opens to first place at the weelend box office. Usually the Saw movies open in the $30-million plus range, but this one suffered the worst open in franchise history! Still, there are even more sequels planned ahead, a fact which I am sure will inspire the Saw detractors to slit their own wrists. Guys, cheer up — they lost. Maybe this jolt of reality is what is needed to turn the franchise around and make the next Saw movie a good one.

Firmly in “flop” territory is Astro Boy with a humbling $7 million haul. Doing even worse was Amelia, the poorly-received Amelia Earhart biopic starring Hilary Swank. Its haul is estimated at $4,025,000 for an average of $4,921. You would have thought it would have done a little better than that, at least a Top Ten.

Here’s a look at how the box office shaped up:

Paranormal Activity – $22,000,000
Saw VI – $14,800,000
Where the Wild Things Are – $14,420,000
Law Abiding Citizen – $12,713,000
Couples Retreat – $11,097,000
Astro Boy – $7,017,000
The Stepfather (2009) – $6,500,000
Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant – $6,348,000
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $5,600,000
Zombieland – $4,300,000

I hope Paranormal Activity enjoys its well-deserved moment of glory this weekend at the box office. It is sure not to last long, because Michael Jackson’s This Is It will be rolling out later this week and the theaters are sure to be jammed for that one, too. That will be what we will be serving up next, right here at the Reject Report.

The Reject Report Anticipates a Box Office Saw-off

John Cairns — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 19:08:19 +0000

It’s a pre-Halloween edition of the Reject Report! Yes, October 31 is fast approaching, and this weekend promises to by scary-good at the theatres for moviegoers interested in scary movies. In fact, it’s been a banner year for horror movies at the box office. The winning Paranormal Activity continues to roll, and Saw VI will be rolling out, as well as Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant and the reissue of Tim Burton’s The Nightmare before Christmas (in limited release). And we also have Astro Boy.

First, as we have been doing the last number of weekends we will lead off with the continuing Paranormal Activity story, which keeps on going and going like the Energizer Bunny at the theaters. It still isn’t in a multitude of theaters – still under 800 – but it is raking in some big, big audience numbers. On Monday night, it made $1,967,921, almost beating the highly-regarded weekend box office champ Where the Wild Things Are. On Tuesday, Paranormal Activity hauled in $1,785,846, which also came razor-close to beating the Tuesday night winner Law Abiding Citizen ($1,801,997).

Finally, on Wednesday night, Paranormal Activity made it all the way to the top. Number One. $1,639,240. It was a close win over Where the Wild Things Are and Law Abiding Citizen, but it counts.

Now Paranormal Activity is going to go wide to nearly 2,000 theater locations across North America and with Halloween on its way the momentum for this movie just keeps on building. The theatre average has been dropping from weekend to weekend – it was at $49,000 two weekends ago and last weekend it was $25,000. I could see the average dropping again to, say, $13,000. So multiplied by 1945 locations, that roughly comes to — over $25 million?!?! Holy crow, this movie is going to be doing even better business than last weekend. If the theatre average is higher, we could be looking at some serious money rolling in — possibly over $30 million. Look out for Paranormal Activity, folks. It has already hit Number One and could well stay there this weekend.

I now move on to Saw VI which is opening in roughly 3,000 theatre locations and expects to do battle for the box office title this weekend. It’s yet another in the long series of movies based on that villain Jigsaw. Based on the ploy synopsis I’ve read, it the detective Hoffman emerges as the successor to Jigsaw. Here’s the trailer:

This flick always does good business whenever it is released, but it doesn’t absolutely steamroll at the box office. My feeling is this will win Friday night — and then that will be it, and Paranormal Activity will take over. I might as well end the suspense now: $23 million is my prediction for Saw VI. I just think Paranormal Activity is going to be too strong.

Next up is Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant, starring John C. Reilly, Josh Hutcherson, and Chris Massoglia. The movie is the film adaptation of the book series The saga of Darren Chan from author Darren Shan. Massoglia plays the title character Shan, a teenage boy who stumbles upon a travelling freakshow and meets up with this strange man, who turns out to be a vampire. And weird things start to happen. Yes, indeed, folks, this is a vampire movie. Well, what did you expect? The vampire fad is still going strong just like last fall when Twilight came out in November.

How much money is this one going to make? Well, how about a nice round scary number like $13 million? Hey, Halloween’s coming. One of these flicks has got to make $13 million.

Watch the Vampire’s Assistant trailer:

Next up is Astro Boy, and this is exactly what you expect it to be. It is being released by Summit Entertainment and is the big screen adaptation of the famous Japanese cartoon from Sixties TV. Except this one is CGI. The voices include voices of Freddie Highmore as Astro Boy, Kristen Bell, Nathan Lane, Eugene Levy, Matt Lucas, Donald Sutherland and Bill Nighy.

Why do I get the feeling this is going to be another flop on the scale of Speed Racer? At least Speed Racer had a coolness factor, but Astro Boy is just, well, Astro Boy. Honestly, if they had done a remake of some Hanna-Barbera cartoon I could see it doing great business, but this one is only going to make $14 million.

Watch the Astro Boy trailer:

Finally, I think I ought to mention the movie Amelia, starring Hilary Swank as Amelia Earhart. This opens in over 800 locations and should sneak into the Top Ten with around $5 million.

Watch the Amelia trailer:

So summing up, it should be a saw-off (yes, another bad pun) at the box office this weekend. You know, the horror fans have complained for years about how studios have shafted them by not releasing horror movies in October where they belong. I don’t think there can be any gripes about the situation this year with about a week left to Halloween weekend. Here’s my predicted order of finish:

Paranormal Activity $25 million
Saw VI $23 million
Where the Wild Things Are $16 million
Astro Boy $14 million
Law Abiding Citizen $13.5 million
Cirque du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant $13 million
Couples Retreat $9 million
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $5.5 million
The Stepfather $5.2 million
Amelia $5 million

That’s it for now! See you at the end of the weekend when we determine who takes home all the loot here at the Reject Report!

Where the Wild Things Are Begins With a $32 Million Rumpus

John Cairns — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 19:34:07 +0000

Well, it was an interesting weekend at the theaters, though perhaps not as earth-shattering as some had hoped. As expected, Where the Wild Things Are was the weekend’s big winner, with an opening haul of $32 million. Frankly, though, I had expected a much bigger opening. I thought there was no way this movie was going to do a worse opening than Couples Retreat last week, but it did: $32 million compared to $35 mil. Shows you what I know.

There were people in the press jumping the gun and declaring that Where the Wild Things Are was on track for an October opening record after it opened to $12 million, but the Saturday haul wasn’t much better than the Friday haul, so that’s why it ended up where it ended up. Frankly, I’m surprised it didn’t set the October record, because there was a lot of good buzz out there for this movie. Probably, though, what will happen is it will have less of a drop at the box office next week and end up making money for several weekends in a row.

(But I could be wrong on that. I’m wrong on a lot of things.)

The big surprise was how well Law Abiding Citizen did: $21 million, just ahead of Paranormal Activity. That showing represents a big box office win for Jamie Foxx and Gerard Butler, and yet another total defeat for the nation’s film critcs who crucified the movie, only to see it make a lot miore money than most everyone expected.

Paranormal Activity continues to roll now that it has gone into wide release in over 700 locations. It’s $20 million haul is its best weekend yet, and its screen average for the weekend is $26,530 — still a phenomenal showing. What I want to know is how many more locations will be added to the distribution next week. This flick shows no signs of slowing down at the box office and its overall gross is now up to $33 million. Not bad at all for a $15,000 investment.

Finally, The Stepfather made $12 million this weekend, which is also higher than what people predicted. All in all, I’d say it was a pretty good October weekend at the box office.

The results:

Where the Wild Things Are – $32,470,000
Law Abiding Citizen – $21,250,000
Paranormal Activity – $20,163,000
Couples Retreat – $17,949,000
The Stepfather (2009) – $12,300,000
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $8,100,000
Zombieland – $7,800,000
Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) – $3,011,000
Surrogates – $1,922,000
The Invention of Lying – $1,905,000

That is all for now! See you later this week as we preview the weekend box office again at the Reject Report!

The Reject Report Goes Where the Wild Things Are

John Cairns — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 18:34:07 +0000

Welcome to another Reject Report, and this weekend we look forward to the much-anticipated Where the Wild Things Are, based on the best-selling children’s book. Also rolling out is The Stepfather and Law Abiding Citizen, plus we have a Paranormal Activity update as well. All that and more in this weekend’s edition!

We might as well start with Paranormal Activity, which continues to roll at the box office in limited release. Last weekend it clawed its way past $7 million, and by the middle of this week it was ranking as high as third place in the overall box office. Not bad for a flick that was in 159 locations. Well, the campaign to roll this movie out in wide release has succeeded: Paramount got the 1,000,000 demands they wanted from the fans, so the movie is going wide in 760 locations.

I’m doing a quick calculation here and by my estimation that should mean a haul in the neighborhood of $25 million. It could be even more. This horror flick is doing an insane amount of business in limited release, and I think this movie is going to be in more and more theaters with every passing week. It really is a phenomenon. But right now I say Paranormal Activity will haul in $25 million this weekend and climb as high as second place in the overall box office standings.

Watch the Paranormal Activity trailer:

Next, there is Law Abiding Citizen, a thriller starring Jamie Foxx, Gerard Butler and Viola Davis. It’s rolling out in 2,700 locations. The story is about some poor guy who decides to take matters into his own hands after the DA lets his family’s killers go free.

Interesting stuff – but these action thrillers don’t seem to do the kind of business they once did at the box office. Given the modest theater count I think a modest haul around $14 million is the likely finish for Law Abiding Citizen.

Watch the Law Abiding Citizen trailer:

The Stepfather is a horror thriller from the Screen Gems folks and is yet another remake of a 1980s horror movie — this one from 1987. Do you get the feeling of deja vu when you go to a horror movie these days? This one stars Penn Badgley, who plays Sela Ward’s son in the movie, and he suspects the man she is about to marry in the movie, David Harris (played by Dylan Walsh), may not be such a good guy.

This one rolls out in about 2,700 locations as well, but I see a much more modest haul in the $8 million range. I just think that Paranormal Activity is going to steal this movie’s business.

Watch the trailer for The Stepfather:

Last but definitely not least, Where the Wild Things Are is Spike Jonze’s film version of Maurice Sendak’s 1963 children’s book. The cast includes Max Records, Catherine Keener, Mark Ruffalo, Lauren Ambrose, Chris Cooper, James Gandolfini, Catherine O’Hara and Forest Whitaker. Records stars as Max, who is this runaway kid who finds himself sailing off to an island inhabited by the Wild Things, who make him their ruler.

I’m pretty much convinced this movie is going to be the hands-down winner at the box office this weekend. It’s aimed at a family audience and has some cool monsters, and has a wide release into 3,700 locations. I figure this movie should at least do better than Couples Retreat did last week. I am going out on a limb and predicting $41 million for these Wild Things.

Watch the Where the Wild Things Are trailer:

So here is how I see the box office shaping up for this weekend:

Where the Wild Things Are $41 million
Paranormal Activity $25 million
Couples Retreat $17 million
Law Abiding Citizen $14 million
Zombieland $9 million
Tne Stepfather $8 million
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $7 million
Toy Story/Toy Story 2 $5 million
Surrogates $2.1 million
Whip It $1.8 million

And that is it for now! See you at the end of the weekend to find out if these predictions were any good here at the Reject Report!

Scary Good Box Office for Couples Retreat, Paranormal Activity

John Cairns — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 02:21:06 +0000

The numbers are in from a surprising weekend at the theaters, with two movies, Couples Retreat and Paranormal Activity, outperforming a lot of the expectations out there by a considerable margin. Seven million for Paranormal Activity? Thirty-five for Couples Retreat? Are you kidding me? No.

We’ll first deal with Couples Retreat, which opened to $12.5 million on Friday and cruised to a haul of $35.3 million.

I know what some people are saying: thirty-five million bucks — for this piece of junk??? This movie is at 13 percent at Rotten Tomatoes, folks, with scores much lower than a lot of the “fresh” movies that are all over the box office right now, yet its haul is the best opening weekend of the whole fall? Even our own Dr. Cole Abaius gave it a freaking D-plus. What gives?!

It’s easy to say, in unison, “I don’t get it” — but you can point to a number of obvious reasons why the box office was as good as it was, starting with the obvious fact that it had no competition in wide release at all. That’s number one. Second, never underestimate the power of women who wears a bikini to haul in the guys — in this case, several women. And the skimpy clothes on some of the guys attracted the ladies who made up most of the audiences. Third, never underestimate the power of Vince Vaughn to lift the box office of a movie — any movie. Whether its Four Christmases or The Break-Up, or any movie, really, Vaughn seems to deliver the moola just by being in the cast — although, on the flip side, he sure didn’t deliver the moola at all for Vince Vaughn’s Wild West Comedy Show. Why that one flopped so badly, I don’t know.

Finally, people are in the mood for a movie where you could leave your brain in neutral at home. One guy told me that he wanted to go see Couples Retreat not in spite of its stupidity, but because of it.

So there you go. Couples Retreat is a hit. And the critics of America have tomatoes all over their faces, again. So what else is new. Anyway, that’s Couples Retreat.

The other big story is Paranormal Activity, and I can say I sort of saw this coming, but I didn’t forsee the extent of it. I knew something big was happening with this movie, that the buzz was through the roof, but I didn’t know how it would translate into money in 159 locations. Well, we got our answer now. This movie made not two million, not even five million, but over $7 million this weekend. It made $2.6 million on Friday alone and $2.8 million on Saturday. For the weekend, the movie’s average was $44,440. Its overall gross is already $8,280,000! And it isn’t even in wide release yet!

Suffice it to say that Paramount, the distributors, are going to go ahead with a wide release of Paranormal Activity sooner rather than later. A haul of $7 million in 159 locations is not just good, it’s unbelievable. This movie is going to be a blockbuster.

The results:

Couples Retreat – $35,340,000
Zombieland – $15,000,000
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $12,000,000
Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) – $7,674,000
Paranormal Activity – $7,066,000
Surrogates – $4,115,000
The Invention of Lying – $3,370,000
Whip It – $2,800,000
Capitalism: A Love Story – $2,700,000
Fame (2009) – $2,556,000

That is all for now. When we return later this coming week, we at the Reject Report go Where the Wild Things Are. See you then.

The Reject Report Heads Off on a Couples Retreat

John Cairns — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 05:25:43 +0000

Well, it makes it really easy to do a Reject Report column when only one new movie rolls out in wide release. It’s called Couples Retreat and it is the movie we will preview in this week’s box office report.

First, though, I want to talk about a movie that is still in limited release right now. It’s called Paranormal Activity and it has been a sensation everywhere it has been playing so far. It has been selling out midnight screenings and has already grossed a little over $1 million. Just on Wednesday night alone it grossed $100,000 in 33 locations, putting it ahead of flicks such as Jennifer’s Body, All About Steve and other movies. This weekend the movie rolls out in 44 cities in 159 locations and if the sellouts continue and the buzz continues for this movie it has a shot at a real wide release very soon. Already this movie is being compared to The Blair Witch Project in terms of the hype and excitement it has generated. Right now Paramount is saying that if they get a million demands for screenings, they will release the movie wide across the country. Last I checked it was at over 767,00 demands, so don’t be surprised one bit if the wide release for this flick comes sooner rather than later — and don’t be surprised if this movie becomes a big box-office hit.

You heard it here. I like to be ahead of the curve here at the Reject Report, and unfortunately I was a little late to the game in picking up on the phenomenon of this movie, but watch for Paranormal Activity to make some noise this weekend. I think it may just sneak its way into the top ten.

Watch the Paranormal Activity trailer:

Now onto Couples Retreat which is the big Vince Vaughn-Jon Favreau re-teaming from the movie Swingers. The cast also features Faizon Love, Jason Bateman, Kristin Davis, Kristen Bell, Malin Akerman, Kali Hawk, Jean Reno and Peter Serafinowicz. The flick is about four couples who go on a Couples Retreat on a tropical island Eden, a “Disneyland for Adults”, to try and spice up their relationships.

You’d think looking at the trailer that this would be a fun, sexy romp and a great date movie. It also has a captive audience because, heck, it’s the only new movie in wide release. Now, here’s the bad news. Apparently it sucks. I was over at Rotten Tomatoes and the critics are retreating out of the theaters en masse, giving this turd an 8 percent rating as of Thursday night.

Watch the Couples Retreat trailer:

Wow, that’s awful! I guess we’re overdue for one of these things, though. We’ve had a great run lately with a string of top-notch movies at the box office – Zombieland, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and a few others — so we are overdue for a big stinkaroo sooner rather than later. I actually think that this movie might just create some really bad buzz and that will depress the box office, so a movie that might otherwise have gotten up to $26 or $27 million will only do something in the range of $21 million.

So that is my prediction: $21 mil for Couples Retreat. Enough for first place, but nothing spectacular.

As for the order of finish for the next three days of this Columbus Day weekend, here is what I see happening:

Couples Retreat $21 million
Zombieland $15 million
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $11.5 million
Toy Story/Toy Story 2 $8.5 million
The Invention of Lying $4.5 million
Surrogates $4 million
Capitalism: A Love Story $3 million
Whip It $2.8 million
Fame $2.3 million
Paranormal Activity $2.2 million

There, I said it — Paranormal Activity sneaks into the top ten, and get ready for big things for this movie to start happening at the box office. That’s all for this edition. Stay tuned later this weekend as we give you the rundown of what went down at the box office, right here at the Reject Report!

Zombieland Takes Over the Box Office

John Cairns — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:31:37 +0000

Well, it’s $25 million dollars this weekend for the hit Zombieland, proving that the zombie movie genre is alive and well. I know there were some people who had predicted even more than this, but I think that given the competition and the rest of it, it did okay.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs didn’t seem to be hurt as badly by the Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D revival as I thought, raking in $16 million to Toy Story’s $12.5 million.

As for the other movies — all I gotta say is where the hell ARE you people? Out shopping? Watching football games? (Yeah, I know, wise guy: you were at Zombieland.) There must be a reason, on a weekend full of “fresh” Rotten Tomatoes movies, why the box office isn’t better than this. Maybe the teachers at school are on a rampage and assigning a lot of homework. Maybe the college profs are assigning too many essays and other boring things to do. Maybe it’s because vacations are over for everyone, so now no one has time to go to a single, solitary movie (not even on a weekend?!?). All people have time for is maybe Zombieland, and that’s it. I guess that’s why The Invention of Lying wound up with $7.3 million, or why Drew Barrymore’s Whip It only got $4.8 million. Capitalism: A Love Story also only got $4.8 million, but I can understand that: Michael Moore is hated by a lot of people, particularly capitalists. But still, you would have thought the lefties would have shown up in greater numbers. Nikki Finke is saying this is going to be the worst showing for a Michael Moore movie since 2002.

I don’t get it. These may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but they weren’t pieces of junk, folks.

Actually, the distribution for a lot of these movies wasn’t great to begin with and that was a big reason the numbers were what they were. It’s too bad, but that’s life in October for theater owners — business is usually like this. Look on the bright side, though — at least the lineups for popcorn weren’t so bad. So it truly was a great experience at the theater for the people there!

The damages:

Zombieland – $25,000,000
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $16,700,000
Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D) – $12,500,000
The Invention of Lying – $7,350,000
Surrogates – $7,344,000
(Tie) Capitalism: A Love Story – $4,850,000
(Tie) Whip It – $4,850,000
Fame (2009) – $4,754,000
The Informant! – $3,800,000
Love Happens – $2,777,000

I’d write some more, but I’m afraid I’ve got no time, either. That’s all for now. I’ll be back later this week at the Reject Report, when we all go on a Couples Retreat! See you then.

The Reject Report Heads West into Zombieland

John Cairns — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:11:04 +0000

Welcome to what is shaping up to being an interesting week at the Reject Report. We have three new movies in Whip It, Zombieland, The Invention of Lying, a 3D re-release in Toy Story, and an expanding release in Capitalism: A Love Story. In the meantime, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs is still in theaters making money, but it is starting to sink a bit, and it sure looks as if the defending champ could be duck soup this weekend and fall victim to a concerted attack by the zombies and other things.

I might as well begin with Capitalism: A Love Story which rolled out on four screens last weekend and made a per theater average of $60,000!!! Pretty big stuff. It rolls out to 1,000 theaters this weekend and should make a lot more money. Bashing capitalism has been good financially for Michael Moore, and with this movie he takes on the easiest target ever: your favorite financial companies in corporate America.

This movie is going to get an audience and make money, no doubt. The only question is how much. My guess is it makes it up to $7 million, but for it to make much more it really needed to be in more theaters, which it isn’t. Still, I expect all the lefties out there will be lining up for old Michael Moore.

Watch the trailer for Capitalism: A Love Story:

Next up for me is The Invention of Lying, starring hilarious Ricky Gervais. This flick also has Rob Lowe, Jennifer Garner and Jonah Hill. It’s set in a world where no one ever lies, but Gervais plays a guy who has the ability to lie and use it for his own advantage.

I don’t know what to make of the possible box office for The Invention of Lying. It strikes me as the kind of movie that will have trouble getting to $10 million. In fact, its theater count is so low, around 1,700, that I have trouble seeing this movie do better than $8 million. I’m not lying.

Watch the Invention of Lying trailer:

Next, Whip It is a roller derby movie directed by Drew Barrymore and starring Ellen Page, Zoe Bell, Marcia Gay Harden, Kristen Wiig and Barrymore herself. It’s about this rebellious ex-beauty contest contestant who finds freedom skating in the roller derby in Austin, Texas.

(I kind of find it odd that you have a roller derby movie set in Austin, Texas — I always thought the roller derby was more of a California thing. Maybe the roller derby is big in Austin — I don’t know.)

Anyway, this one is in 2100 theaters and I think that means more dough than The Invention of Lying – up to $8.5 million.

Watch the Whip It trailer:

For you zombie movie fans who are starved for a zombie movie, Zombieland is rolling out. It is starring Woody Harrelson, Jesse Eisenberg, Emma Stone and Abigail Breslin, and it features a bunch of zombies eating people and turning the whole world into zombies. So these folks are basically the last people on earth, and on the run from the zombies.

I saw the trailer for this on TV and some of the interviews with the cast members on late night TV, and I gotta say this looks like fun. I think this is going to do pretty decent business. I don’t know, though, if it will do as well as some people are predicting. Some are picking this movie to get to $25 million or $30 million but the theater count is under 3,000 and that usually means a lower haul. I’m more comfortable predicting $20 million.

Watch the Zombieland trailer:

Finally, we have the return of Toy Story and Toy Story 2 to theaters in a special edition release — this time, in 3D! Yes, these two PIXAR classics are back, and being shown back to back in around 1700 theaters, with plenty of them charging hefty 3D prices. That’s the good news. The bad news is they’ll be running double features for the price of one. Not so good news.

Watch the Toy Story 3D Double Feature trailer:

I like the chances of Toy Story/Toy Story 2 to make it to $10 million, which should attract plenty of families and cut heavily into business for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, which I think will make $13 million. Which means — the zombies are going to eat the meatballs for dinner this weekend!

My likely order of finish:

Zombieland $20 million
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $13 million
Toy Story 3D Double Feature $10 million
Whip It $8.5 million
The Invention of Lying $8 million
Surrogates $7.5 million
Capitalism: A Love Story $7 million
Fame $5.5 million
The Informant! $4 million
I Can Do Bad All By Myself $3 million

May I add this observation — according to Rotten Tomatoes it appears the movies rolling out this weekend may be a particularly “fresh” crop. So maybe we are in store for some pleasant surprises at the theaters as far as attendance is concerned as well.

Oops, I forgot — no one cares about what critics have to say. Okay then, go ahead and stay home — but be prepared to miss out.

We’ll be back this weekend with the results of what is sure to be a competitive box office right here at the Reject Report!

Box Office ‘Cloudy’ For a Second Consecutive Week

John Cairns — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 18:12:29 +0000

So much for all the new releases this weekend. It was once again Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs which dominated the weekend box office, with all the new releases Surrogates, Fame, Pandorum and all the rest coming up well short.

In fact, it wasn’t even a very close race in the end, with Meatballs running away with it on Saturday and Sunday after a close Friday. Their repeat first-place finish with $24.6 million was only a small drop from their $30 million opening last week, which was the third best September opening of all time behind Sweet Home Alabama and Rush Hour (Which goes to show you what a dead month September usually is at the box office, folks.)

The rundown:

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $24,600,000
Surrogates – $15,000,000
Fame (2009) – $10,033,000 -
The Informant! – $6,915,000
Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $4,750,000
Pandorum – $4,408,000
Love Happens – $4,327,000
Jennifer’s Body – $3,500,000
9 – $2,832,000
Inglourious Basterds – $2,722,000

In limited releases I Hope They Serve Beer in Hell made $369,000 while Michael Moore’s Capitalism: A Love Story made $240,000 from four screens! That’s right, the average was $60,000 for Capitalism: A Love Story! Huge.

I could go on, but my interest in writing about this week’s movies is about the same as your own interest in seeing them: not very much. September can’t end fast enough.

See you later this week for more here at the Reject Report!

The Reject Report Seeks ‘Fame,’ Forecast Still ‘Cloudy’

John Cairns — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:53:26 +0000

Welcome to what is sure to be another down week at the movie theaters here at the Reject Report! September has not let anyone down so far, living up to its bad reputation as the month to avoid long lineups and get a good seat in an empty theater. This week, we have three movies in wide release — although to be honest, rolling out in 3,000 theaters isn’t exactly blockbuster potential. We have Fame, Surrogates and Pandorum rolling out, and they stand the best chance of knocking off Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs. Or they may not.

The thing is, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs still stands to pick up some good repeat business because of all the good buzz it is getting. Moreover, it’s clear to everyone that none of these new movies seem likely to set the woods on fire, so we may have a repeat winner at the box office this weekend.

We might as well start with Fame, which is a remake of the 1980 film of the same name, which also spawned a TV series of the same name. As an aside — is it me, or does it feel like the 1980s at these movie theaters these days?? This year alone we have Fame and Friday the 13th, and My Bloody Valentine, and Halloween II, and I could go on and on. What’s next — Ghostbusters? Revenge of the Nerds? Hardbodies!? Hey, why not — they’re bringing back everything else. (I love the Eighties.)

I think part of the reason they are doing this teenagers-seeking-fame-and-fortune-in-New York movie remake is because we live in the era of “American Idol”‘ and “High School Musical”, and “Glee”, and all these other musical movies and TV shows. So this definitely fits right in. But I dunno — we may be near the saturation point. It seems like a bit of a stale idea to me.

My prediction for Fame? $16 million.

Watch the Fame trailer:

Next is a movie called Surrogates, a sci-fi action movie starring Bruce Willis and Radha Mitchell and based on the comic book series of the same name. It’s set in a futuristic world where people live pretty much isolated from one another, and they interact through robots — surrogates. But then these surrogates start getting murdered, and Willis must leave behind his own surrogate so he can solve the problem.

Interesting stuff. Still, I think it will only be moderately successful. I’m predicting $18 million here.

Watch the Pandorum trailer:

Finally, there’s Pandorum, another sci-fi movie starring Dennis Quaid and Ben Foster. This about two men on a spacecraft who wake up on their ship and don’t remember a darned thing — but they soon realize they are not alone.

This one is in fewer theaters than these other two — about 2,500 — so I don’t think it will do quite as much business. What I worry about is that it HASN’T BEEN SCREENED FOR CRITICS. When a movie doesn’t get screened for critics, I gotta say, it’s always a red flag unless your name happens to be Tyler Perry or someone like that. Surrogates was another one that didn’t get too many screenings. Anyhow, I am predicting $7 million for Pandorum.

Watch the Pandorum trailer:

So really, as far as the quality of the movies we are in store for this weekend, it really is anyone’s guess right now. My guess is that these movies may not have enough strength to make it past Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, which I think may just sneak back into first place again with a haul of $20 million. As I have said, it has a lot of good buzz going for it, so I’m going to go out on a limb and say there will be a rare repeat first-place finish this week. My predicted order of finish is as follows:

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $20 million
Surrogates $18 million
Fame $16 million
Pandorum $7 million
The Informant! $6.7 million
I Can Do Bad All By Myself $5.5 million
Love Happens $4.5 million
9 $3.5 million
Jennifer’s Body $3.1 million
Inglourious Basterds $2.7 million

For those looking for alternatives, I Hope They serve Beer in Hell is in limited release in 120 theaters, Whip It has 500 sneak previews on the 26th, and Bright Star expands to 130 theaters. And there are a few other limited releases out there showing in select cities, like Capitalism: A Love Story from Michael Moore. That expands next week.

That’s it for now! See you at the end of the weekend when I hope to get these predictions right — for a change — at the Reject Report!

Reject Report: Megan Fox Drowns in Meatballs

John Cairns — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 04:27:57 +0000

I often say it is “feast or famine” at the box office, and as has been the custom for the past several weeks, the trend held true as Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs won the weekend with a healthy $30.1 million haul. So there’s no question about what movie was the big winner this weekend.

As for the big loser — well, I have to say the slam dunk winner was Jennifer’s Body, which turned into Jennifer’s “Dead” Body at the box office. It only hauled in $6.8 million, a truly dismal performance that exceeded everyone’s worst expectations. Well, that’s what happens when you make a lousy movie that disappoints the horror fans: they don’t show up. And if this isn’t proof that Megan Fox can’t carry a movie all by herself, I dunno what is.

I’m actually kind of surprised, given the hype over Fox and over whatever Diablo Cody does. I guess people are more interested these days in seeing a good movie than falling for any hype, and I think people just felt Jennifer’s Body just wasn’t any good.

The other results speak for themselves. My own feeling about The Informant! is that this is the kind of movie that will do a fair bit of week-in and week-out business and benefit from enough word-of-mouth to stay in the Top Ten, at least for a while.

The results:

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs – $30,100,000
The Informant! – $10,545,000
Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself – $10,060,000
Love Happens – $8,456,000
Jennifer’s Body – $6,800,000
9 – $5,458,000
Inglourious Basterds – $3,603,000
All About Steve – $3,400,000
Sorority Row – $2,489,000
The Final Destination – $2,375,000

That is it for this weekend! See you later for more prognostications here at the Reject Report!

The Reject Report Takes a Bite Out of Megan Fox

John Cairns — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 05:46:18 +0000

Welcome to a star studded Reject Report! We’ve got some heavy A-list talent on hand this weekend at the theaters: Matt Damon! Jennifer Aniston!! Megan Fox!!! And in the end these folks may all end up losing at the box office to 3D CGI spaghetti and meatballs.

It is all adding up to a very uncertain and unpredictable weekend at the theaters, and the thing that is interesting is that we have four movies that are going to attract four completely different audiences. Kids are going to go for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, the chicks may go for Love Happens, the horror fans will want to see Jennifer’s Body, and working stiffs and people who hate the big corporations may go for The Informant!

I’ll start with The Informant! It’s directed by Steven Soderburgh and stars Matt Damon as this hilarious, dufus corporate whistleblower who is recruited as an informant for the FBI. Also in the cast are Scott Bakula, Joel McHale and Melanie Lynskey. The movie rolled out at the Toronto International Film Festival and the word is it’s funny as hell, so it may be worth a look.

I wonder about the theater count of 2,505, which isn’t a recipe for a heck of a lot of money. These corporate-whistleblower-type movies aren’t exactly known for being blockbusters, either. But I think this will find an audience and make it up to $17 million for the weekend.

Watch the trailer for The Informant!:

Next is Jennifer’s Body, the much-hyped horror flick starring Megan Fox as a high-school-cheerleader who becomes possessed and eats guys. It also stars Amanda Seyfried as her best pal. The flick is written by Diablo Cody and directed by Karyn Kusama.

This one is being released to 2,700 theaters, not a lot. I notice Megan Fox has been her usual media-whore self, opening her big mouth at random all week trying to hype the movie up. She’s been trashing Michael Bay, declared she would never do a sex tape, blabbed that she threatened to kill her boyfriend — the works. Oh my God, aren’t people sick of her big mouth yet? I’m tempted to say Megan, shut up — before you really put your big foot in it bigtime.

Anyway, I think Jennifer’s Body will open to $18 million — and in spite of “Jennifer’s Mouth”, not because of it. Though I will admit, any publicity is good publicity.

Watch the Jennifer’s Body trailer:

Next is yet another Jennifer Aniston chick flick Love Happens, co-starring Aaron Eckhart. Eckhart plays this widower self-help guy who falls for this woman, and must confront his own emotions about his wife’s passing.

It’s only on 1,900 or so screens and worse yet, it isn’t being screened for critics. I can understand a movie like G.I. Joe not being screened, but a Jennifer Aniston flick? This is a really bad sign, folks. I think this flick is going to go down the tubes fast once people actually see it. I predict only $10 million, and the only reason I am going that high is because Aniston is in the flick. She’s still all over the tabloids, and the latest rumor is she’s linked to Gerard Butler. So there will be a few people interested in her love life who will pay to see this movie. If she weren’t in this effort business would be completely in the sink, that’s for sure, because otherwise this movie has NOTHING going for it.

Watch the Love Happens trailer:

Finally, there is Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, from Sony Animation, based on the children’s book by Judi and Ron Barrett. What’s important is that this flick is yet another one of the many 3D movies sweeping the country in this year of 3D. Bill Hader, Anna Faris, and James Caan are among the voices.

Of all the new movies rolling out this weekend this one has the widest release in over 3,000 theaters, and stands to benefit from higher 3D ticket prices and more showings thanks to a run time of only 81 minutes. Granted, I don’t think people are too wild about this movie, either, but I do see this one winning the weekend by a few meatballs, with a $26 million opening.

Watch the Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs trailer:

My prediction for the final finish is as follows:

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $26 million
Jennifer’s Body $18 million
The Informant! $17 million
Tyler Perry’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself $12.5 million
Love Happens $10 million
9 $6 million
Inglourious Basterds $4 million
All About Steve $3 million
The Final Destination $2.5 million
Sorority Row $2.4 million

We’ll see if this is actually how it plays out. I kind of am going out on a limb in the prediction department here. Really, I think any scenario could play out in the Top 5. And who knows what moviegoers are thinking at this time of year? What some might be thinking is “gee, I’d rather go to a football game instead.” Which, incidentally, are my big plans for the weekend. (Actually, I have to report on one this weekend. Take pity on me.)

And I know already – Charlize Theron has The Burning Plain out in limited release, but that’s only on 21 screens.

See you after the weekend — once I am done watching football — as I count the loot again here at the Reject Report!

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