Weekly Over/Under: Spiders, Dragons and poor people, oh my!

Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on December 13, 2006

It has been a very busy week here at FSR Headquarters. Of course, it is Awards season, which means that I get the almost daily opportunity to spout off about who may or may not even be considered for an Oscar in our feature, Oscar Beat ‘06. That also means tons and tons of screenings and even more Awards screeners that just seem to pile up next to my television. On top of that we rolled a brand new design for the site earlier this week, making us even more awesome than we previously thought possible. But all of that still won’t stop me from taking a gander at the upcoming weekend at the Box Office, mucking around in some mediocre analysis and making a prediction or two. It is a little feature that we like to call The Weekly Over/Under, and it is on like Donkey Kong!

Last Week’s Over/Under was a toughy, with us pitting our wits against the waining popularity of Mel Gibson. We asked the question, “Will ‘Apocalypto’ make $20 million on opening weekend?” and the consensus was a resounding “NO”. It turns out that the consensus was correct, as all consensuses should be. As you can see from the chart above (provided by the wonderful folks at Box Office Mojo), Apocalypto [review by Matt Alexander] was able to slash its way through the competition and grab the #1 spot, but it wasn’t quite a $20 million monster. In tow were animated powerhouse Happy Feet and sure fire chick flick The Holiday [review by Brian Gibson], which also finished strong in its opening weekend. Casino Royale [review by Robert Fure] played strong again, finishing 4th and Edward Zwick’s dramatic call for awareness, Blood Diamond [review by Neil Miller] rounded the top 5.

Moving onto this week’s releases, we have a slue of newbies, two of which have been hand selected to participate in this week’s Over/Under:

This Week’s Over/Under:

Will Paramount’s Charlotte’s Web finish over or under Fox’s Eragon in this weekend’s Box Office earnings?

The Analysis:

Someone made the observation the other day that in order for Paramount to fit all of the big names on the poster for Charlotte’s Web, the marquee had to be something like font size 2. And no, it was not a tiny poster, it was regulation size. That signifies the fact that Charlotte’s Web is packing some serious star power. The likes of Julia Roberts, Oprah Winfrey, Steve Buscemi, Kathy Bates, and Robert Redford all lend their voices to furry critters and creepy crawlers while cute-as-a-button superstar Dakota Fanning lends her entire body. This one has big money written all over it, save for the fact that it has been ill marketed thus far.

But while Charlotte is weaving a web of A-Listers, we cannot discount the other major releases this weekend. Eragon is a much anticipated adventure story based a very popular series of books - something we have seen before. Think Harry Potter meets Lord of the Rings, only with more dragons and less Viggo Mortensen. That just means that my mom won’t want to see it, but I am sure the Geek nation will be out in force, with Harry Knowles leading the charge. Second in competition is Will Smith’s late year Oscar bid, The Pursuit of Happyness [review by Neil Miller], which features plenty of awesome shots of Smith sprinting up and down the streets of San Francisco. All kidding aside, Happyness will bring in some dough thanks to the very warm on screen tandem of Will Smith and his real life son Jaden.

So all do now is mix these three very strong releases in with an already flooded pool of winners and what do we get? A mess, thats what. My senses tell me that Eragon will be very strong, along with another good weekend for The Holiday and an equally impressive start for Will Smith, who is always a big draw. The wild card is Charlotte, with her huge cast and family friendly aura… Oh, the pain of decisions. Let’s just get on with it, shall we?

My Bid:

Under.

Eragon won’t put more smiles on little kids’ faces, but it will sell more tickets.

Be sure to weigh in your opinion by voting in the poll to the right or making a comment, which is also located to the right.

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