Weekly Over/Under: Can Jackass stay offensive against The Guardian?

Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on September 28, 2006

Allow me to step up onto my soapbox for a moment and bask in the glory of actually winning a Weekly Over/Under despite going against the general consensus. Allow me to bring Cole Abaius up onto the soapbox as well, and share it as a team victory…

Give us a moment to savor it…

Alright, that is enough basking, lets get back into the swing of things. Last Week’s Over/Under was a very deceptive situation, with the box office struggling overall in recent weeks and some relatively strong releases still lurking about. It was very tough to asses the level of success a film such as Jackass: Number Two would have, so when we asked whether it would clear the $20 million mark on opening weekend, it was easy for so many to jump on the “Under” bus. But thanks to the male 13-25 demographic (half of whom had to use fake IDs to get in), Jackass plowed through its competition, raking in a dominating $29 million! Oh the humanity! Here are the exact results:

1. Jackass: Number Two (review) - $29 million
2. Jet Li’s Fearless (review) - $10.5 million
3. Gridiron Gang (review) - $9.5 million
4. Flyboys - $6 million
5. Everyone’s Hero - $4.7 million

Last Week’s Bids (current record):
Neil Miller, Over (2-2)
Brian Gibson, Under (3-1)
Chris Beaumont, Under (3-1)
BobbyQuickDraw, Under (3-1)
Cole Abaius, Over (1-3)
Matthew Alexander, DNP (2-0)

Look at those records beginning to even out! It looks like Cole’s math finally pays off for the both of us. Enough said, let’s move onto this week’s challenge.

This Week’s Over/Under: Will The Guardian clear $15 million on its opening weekend?

The Analysis: Who can resist Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Costner in an action flick? I know I can. This film looks like The Perfect Storm meets Jarhead, but may end up with too much Punk’d attitude. Initial reviews have been positive though (our own Matt Alexander dished out a C+), and there is a strong marketing campaign behind it thanks to being a child of The Walt Disney Company. Taking that all into consideration, the film could stand very well on its own… But there is one problem: it has to compete with Jackass: Number Two. Jackass was a big surprise to some last week as audiences just ate it up. Jet Li’s Fearless also had a great first weekend. In fact, only Gridiron Gang and Everyone’s Hero survived in the Top 5, showing that audience are not sticking with films after they have been out for a few weeks. The question is, will Jackass be the exception to that trend?

My Bid: The more mature crowds have been yearning for a decent action flick, and while this one may disappoint them, its trailer will draw them in. Kutcher and Costner are not big draws anymore on their own, but together they should have a good showing. I will take The Guardian to go Over $15 million this weekend, but not by much.

There has been a lot of great discussion over the past few weeks, hopefully this week is much of the same. Feel free to post your bid below! And for more in-depth conversation around this and any other film related topic, don’t forget to visit the Film School Rejects Forum.

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