Weekly Over/Under: Will Saw III get Flushed Away?

Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on November 3, 2006

Last week we had the return of the Weekly Over/Under after an unannounced week off. Thus, I threw out an easy challenge to everyone – and two people responded. Go figure? But alas, we will get back in step with this Over/Under game… Let’s start, though, with some box office Top 5 Love (via Box Office Mojo):

1. Saw III – $33.6 million
2. The Departed – $9.8 million
3. The Prestige – $9.6 million
4. Flags of Our Fathers – $6.3 million
5. Open Season – $5.8 million

Thoughts: Both The Departed and The Prestige were valiant contenders, but Halloween weekend and Saw III were just too much competition. Saw diced up every film in its way to exceed $30 million, following in the footsteps of its most recent predesessor, Saw II, which made $31 million on the same weekend last year. This one was a clear-cut bloodbath, but that is not to say that this weekend will be anything like it.

But before we move on to this weekend, lets look at how our participants faired.

Neil Miller – Over (3-0)
Brian Gibson – DNP (2-0)
Chris Beaumont – Over (2-1)
Robert Fure – Over (2-1)
Cole Abaius – DNP (1-0-1)
Matt Alexander – DNP (1-0)

Three of six participated, three of six guessed right. Those other guys should have participated. Hopefully they all show up this week…

This Week’s Over/Under: Will Flushed Away finish above Saw III on its opening weekend?

Flushed AwayThe Analysis: Saw III broke loose and ran away with the box office glory last weekend, but much of its victory can be accredited to Halloween weekend and the lack of a good slasher flick thus far in 2006. The horror junkies of America were salivating for this release, and at a $33 million dollar finish, they may have gotten it all out of their systems. That fact alone opens the door back up to the competition this weekend.

Putting up the big fight in wide release are another animated flick, Flushed Away, and the years first film filled with Holiday spirit, The Santa Clause 3. Also not backing down are the two most heralded films of the past month, The Departed and The Prestige. All of these films could have been overshadowed by the immaculately funny Borat, but its release was cut from 2,000 screens to about 800, making it almost a non-factor.

My Bid: It may be a bit too far away from Christmas for The Santa Clause 3, but Flushed Away does have a shot. Then animation looks slick, the story looks funny-ish, and all signs from the critical community say that it is pretty good. I say Flushed Away jumps OVER Saw III this weekend.

Feel free to post your bid below! And for more in-depth conversation around this and any other film related topic, don’t forget to visit the Film School Rejects Forum.


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  • Robert Fure
    Horror movies rarely have staying power in theaters and this will drop probably 35-40% of its audience if not more, so that gives it a box office take of somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 million. Flushed Away looks ok but its the family film of the month probably, so look for it to do about 18-22 or something. Short of it: Flushed Away is OVER Saw III.
  • I'm going to say Under. I have a feeling that SC3 will win. Of course, I hacve a feeling that this will be a bad month for my predictions....
  • Bruno Fragnito
    the santa clause movies have a good track record and generally people like franchise that they can trust so i say it will be over this week, by how much I don't know but it will be over.(santa clause 3)
  • For the record, I'd like to say that I would have gone OVER last week since it was sort of a no-brainer. This week will be a bit tougher, and I'll go against the grain (as usual) and say that Saw III is going to go right on hacking to the top.

    But don't take my word for it. To get this prediction, I actually kidnapped a man, forced him into a straight-jacket with piranhas sewn into it and told him to give me and OVER or UNDER before the clock on the wall struck 10:39.

    He said, "Saw OVER Flushed Away". Well, first he said, "Please, please let me go," but the point is that Saw isn't going anywhere.

    But to the top.

    Again.

    Huzzah!
  • Cole is a madman...lol. I say Flushed Away will not beat out Saw 3 because its a horribly cold weekend out here east. Not many families will want to transport all the kids to the cinema.
  • Interesting use of weather patterns, Brian.


    And Cole... There is something wrong. But for the sake of this site being successful in the future, please don't have it checked...
  • Matthew
    I say it makes it over. Saw III doesn't seem like it is going to have staying power.
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