Weekly Over/Under: The “What happened last week?” Edition

Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on October 26, 2006

Last week’s Over/Under was… non-existent. Alright, so I took an impromptu vacation from the Weekly Over/Under. My apologies.

But even though we did not officially post an Over/Under last week, I know that you all participated in spirit. This week I am back like Die Hard - with a Vengence - and I am ready to rock your world with Box Office analysis and other randomness. Before we swing into this week’s challenge, though, let’s look at last week’s Top 5 at the Box Office (via IMDB):

1. The Prestige - $14.8 million
2. The Departed - $13.5 million
3. Flags of Our Fathers - $10.2 million
4. Open Season - $8.16 million
5. Flicka - $7.7 million

Thoughts: Both The Prestige and Flags of Our Fathers had strong opening weekends, but they barely held off the Tour de Force (that’s an overused critic term) that is The Departed. If Marty Scorsese doesn’t claim Oscar’s glory with this one, then he can still rest easy with the fact that it has already grossed over $75 million at the box office. Not too shabby.

Now let’s take a look at the current standings through two weeks of October:

Neil Miller - 2-0
Brian Gibson - 2-0
Chris Beaumont - 1-1
BobbyQuickDraw - 1-1
Cole Abaius - 1-0-1 (We still can’t figure out if he voted Over or Under on The Marine…)
Matt Alexander - 1-0
Bruno - 1-0

If you remember, 2 weeks ago we were betting on The Marine going over the $8 million mark. It was a close one, and it posted a showing of $7.1 million, but it caused a little bit of swing in the standings. Let’s see if everyone can get back on track this week…

This Week’s Over/Under: Will Saw III top the $30 million mark on opening weekend?

The Analysis: The last few weeks have been pretty lackluster at the box office, but big gross out horror flicks usually draw the crowds back into the seats. The weather is getting colder all over the country, it is starting to snow in some areas (damn Ohio weather! Curse you!) and all the kiddies are now very much settled into school. Add in the fact that Halloween is right around the corner, and you’ve got a recipe for success when it comes to Saw III.

But we cannot discount all of the very strong releases that are still out in theaters - and for that matter, are much more family friendly. The Prestige got a huge win last weekend and is getting acclaim all around. Personally, I gave it an A and secured it a spot in my Top 10 of 2006. The Departed is also lurking about, still with great momentum after all of the amazing reviews that it received. And that is not to mention that Clint Eastwood’s Flags of Our Fathers is a strong draw. But the fact still remains - all of the people who would see these movies really wouldn’t be interested in Saw III, would they?

This film carries with it a very specific demographic that is blood thursty and above all things - loyal. The first Saw grossed only $18 million on opening weekend, then went on to be a huge hit. The second film knocked out $31 million 2 days before Halloween last year. These factors along leave me wondering whether the series still has its charm - if you can call it “charm.” If so, look for a big weekend for fans of random mechanical dismemberment.

My Bid: I am going to go out on a limb and say that the disfunctional youth of America will be out in force for this one. One thing working to Saw III’s advantage - no press screenings. That means no bad press. That means potentially good box office numbers. I say OVER, but not by much.

Feel free to post your bid below! And for more in-depth conversation around this and any other film related topic, don’t forget to visit the Film School Rejects Forum.

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