Box Office
Weekly Over/Under: ‘Happy Feet’ Dances on and on and on…
Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on November 29, 2006
I know that we missed another week of the Over/Under, disappointing fans from all over the world - but be happy, oh faithful Reject Nation! The Weekly Over/Under is back this week, with a few changes to better your reading experience and continue to feed your need for - Box Office Speed! So first things first, lets take a look at what has been going on in the world of film business recently:
It has been all about the Penguins - those of the dancing variety - lately. The uber-cute penguins from Warner Brothers’ Happy Feet (review) have taken audiences across America by storm, raking in over $100 million dollars in just two weeks. This comes as a small surprise seeing that they were pitted against the return of everyone’s favorite Double-0 in Casino Royale (review). Both films have done well over the past two weekends, including the always “green” Thanksgiving weekend, but it was the dancing animated Penguins that have held on to the top spot now 2 weeks in a row. Pretty impressive to say the least.
But that is not to say that there weren’t other movies that made there mark over the Holiday weekend. As you can see in the graphic to the right (provided by the fine folks at Box Office Mojo), newcomers Deja Vu (review) and Deck the Halls (review) came out with solid showings, but just could not compete with a blonde Secret Agent man and some singing, dancing South Pole natives (and I don’t mean elves.) Finishing out the top 5 is the film that is becoming one of the year’s most controversial comedies - Borat (review). Allegations, misappropriations and pending lawsuits are not only keeping Sacha Baron Cohen and Borat on the tip of everyone’s tongues, but they are keeping peoples butts in the seats. Very nice!
1. Brian Gibson (6-2)
2. Neil Miller (6-3)
3. Robert Fure (6-3)
4. Chris Beaumont (5-4)
5. Matt Alexander (4-1)
6. Cole Abaius (2-5-1)
So that brings us up-to-date on what happened last weekend, so lets move on to this week’s challenge.
This Week’s Over/Under:
Will Happy Feet maintain it’s #1 spot for a 3rd weekend in a row?
The Analysis:
Conventional wisdom would say that things would start to fizzle for Happy Feet this weekend. It has already brought in over $100 million, and it should be coming into this weekend with stiff competition as we get closer to Christmas. So that should mean that its reign at the top is just about over, right? In the words of ESPN college football guru Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.”
It is a trend this year, in this huge year of Box Office bliss, that Animated Family Fun flicks who come roaring out of the gates don’t stay #1 for long. During the month of June, Pixar’s Cars spent 2 weeks at #1, only to be knocked off in week 3 by Adam Sandler’s critical flop-fest Click. And even though Cars would go on to make $244 million and stay in the top 5 for 6 weeks, it would eventually be buried by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest along with every other movie of the summer.
But Happy Feet isn’t Cars, is it? It is a bit more fun, a bit more creative and a tad more wholesome. And it isn’t going to be ransacked by any enormously successful Pirate flicks anytime soon. In fact, there is very little new competition this week. The Ryan Reynolds-less Van Wilder 2: The Rise of Taj and the late year torture porn entry Turistas will nibble away some of Happy Feet’s dominance, but not much. The only real threat is the biblical story of triumph, The Nativity Story - which is like Passion of the Christ, only with less (and by less, I mean no) controversy.
All in all, Happy Feet’s competition will primarily come from movies that it has already trounced for the past few weeks. This leads me to believe that those groovy Penguins should mambo to another win this weekend.
My Bid - Over - it’s as simple as that.
Feel free to cast your vote to the right! Also, don’t hesitate to voice your opinion below in the comments area!
Until next week…
Read more articles by Neil Miller
8 Comments
November 29th, 2006 at 3:43 am
There’s a weird logic to these past few years.
Because there hasn’t been really that much coming from the big names and big studios — smaller lesser known films that wouldn’t have a chance get a bigger piece of the advertising pie.
I think also stars are looking to these smaller projects just to give some variety (Happy Feet). Animated features also don’t require them to show up on a set — just record and go.
November 29th, 2006 at 5:37 am
This is actually a tough one. Nothing is coming out this weekend to challenge it. It’s audience is almost exclusively family, so the more mature films aren’t drawing away much of its audience. In only dropped 10% of its gross this week, which is well above normal. But then again, this was Thanksgiving. Bond still has a chance. Deja Vu threatened, but reviews are weak.
I don’t really “feel” this answer. NOrmally I just get a feeling. Or I at least have some idea. Most of me says it wont, this movie doesnt deserve the number 1 spot 3 weeks in a row and won’t get it. But the part of me that does the typing thinks it will.
The jist: Happy Feet remains number 1, Bond remains 2, everything else wallows in mediocrity.
November 29th, 2006 at 8:53 am
Over. No way does Van Wilder overtake a succesful family cartoon in its third week, and the Nativity Story hasn’t gotten the hype.
All in all, a nice analysis, Neil.
November 29th, 2006 at 7:03 pm
I will have to say that it will be the number 1 again. There isn’t much new competition. Taj, Turistas, and Nativity don’t have the power behind them that Feet and Bond do. I think Bond can repeat at 2 as well.
December 1st, 2006 at 12:43 pm
I absolutely hate agreeing with everyone on this site. Unfortunately, it seems that this week, Feet is going to get pecked by several movies, but nothing out there is big enough to swallow it whole.
The only thing keeping me from yelling OVER is the amount of families - parents with small children - that Happy Feet will lose to the Rise of Taj.
But I’ll do it bravely anyway.
Over,
Cole
December 3rd, 2006 at 1:56 pm
I’m saying over, because hell…even I’m going to see Happy Feet this weekend…
December 8th, 2006 at 5:04 am
[...] As sure as a Leonardo DiCaprio film will earn $8 from my mom every time, this is the Weekly Over/Under. Every week I attempt to be witty, insightful and I try to come up with an Over/Under that is somewhat challenging. And aside from failing at the first two each week, I am normally up to snuff when it comes to making things challenging. But over the past few weeks I have been slacking - lobbing up softballs like last week’s “Will Happy Feet be #1 again?” What kind of junk is that? I am determined to make this week’s challenge a bit harder, if it the last thing I do. [...]
December 8th, 2006 at 3:09 pm
[...] As sure as a Leonardo DiCaprio film will earn $8 from my mom every time, this is the Weekly Over/Under. Every week I attempt to be witty, insightful and I try to come up with an Over/Under that is somewhat challenging. And aside from failing at the first two each week, I am normally up to snuff when it comes to making things challenging. But over the past few weeks I have been slacking - lobbing up softballs like last week’s “Will Happy Feet be #1 again?” What kind of junk is that? I am determined to make this week’s challenge a bit harder, if it the last thing I do. [...]