Box Office
Weekly Over/Under: Can Scorsese’s big cast drama “Depart” for a winning weekend?
Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on October 4, 2006
Last week’s box office reminded me of the movie Fight Club when Ed Norton beats the crap out of himself; it was Ashton Kutcher v. Ashton Kutcher. And guess what, they both won! Kutcher’s animated foley, Open Season hit hard at number 1, raking in a very solid $23.6 million and The Guardian, in which he stars with the ever elder Kevin Costner, brought in $18 million. The Guardian was the subject of last week’s Over/Under as it went over the target of $15 million. A solid week all around for the box office, let’s look at how the rest of the Top 5 shaped up:
1. Open Season - $23.6 million
2. The Guardian - $18 million
3. Jackass Number Two - $14.6 million
4. School for Scoundrels - $8.6 million
5. Jet Li’s Fearless - $4.9 million
Last Week’s Bids (current records):
Neil Miller, Over (3-2)
Brian Gibson, Under (3-2)
Chris Beaumont, Over (4-1)
BobbyQuickDraw, DNP (3-1)
Cole Abaius, Under (1-4)
Matthew Alexander, Over (3-0)
Wow, I get two wins to finish the month and I tie Brian!! Yay! It looks like Matt Alexander finishes September as the only person to pick 100%, but he only participated 3 of 5 weeks. Chris Beaumont showed the most skill of those who participated every week; and Cole, well, let’s just say his math is entertaining. It will be interesting to see who comes out on top in October.
Speaking of October, let’s get things rolling…
This Week’s Over/Under: Will The Departed top the $15 million mark on opening weekend?
The Analysis: From the initial comments that Brian Gibson made about the film after seeing a screening, I can tell that this may play out to be one of the best films of the year. Jack Nicholson is a badass like no other, and the rest of the cast is A+. But all that aside, the question still remains: Will people go see it? The kiddies will be out seeing Open Season, or Jackass if they can find their fake IDs; action junkies will still be somewhat interested in The Guardian; and there is a little bit of humor in School for Scoundrels. Then you add in the other releases this week…
The Queen is getting buzz from the political circles, as it deals with the death of Princess Diana. Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning is a great draw for anyone who is into horror flicks, especially due to the fact that there have been 0 good horror movies out since The Descent. And last but not least, the biggest contender: Employee of the Month. Dane Cook’s popularity is at an all-time high, something of which the marketing team of this film is very aware. Add in Jessica Simpson’s “talentsâ€, and you’ve got yourself a party. It may not take away The Departed’s entire demographic, but it may force some 18-25 males to go see it based on the date movie factor. That may lead to a lower week 1 for Scorsese and Co., and a rockin’ week 2. Just a theory - it is probably wrong, but it may be right on some level. All of these things stand to ruin opening weekend for this sure-fire winner, but how can you resist that cast?
My Bid: The Departed will do well. I think enough people have been waiting for this one all summer to push it over the $15 million mark. Theater counts have not been released this week, but that may come into play here. I say it goes over the mark, but just barely… Like $15.1 million or so.
Feel free to post your bid below! And for more in-depth conversation around this and any other film related topic, don’t forget to visit the Film School Rejects Forum.
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7 Comments
October 4th, 2006 at 1:38 am
This is surprisingly tough to call. Lousy box offices and it opens against Employee of the Month, which I hear sucks, but everyone loves Dane Cook. TCM: The Beginning is testing through the roof, so will also be a decent draw. But basically, YES, I think The Departed will make more than 15mil.
October 4th, 2006 at 3:13 am
Tough call indeed. There’s just no mathing my way out of this one. Even Neil is calling it over by a mere .1 million.
This calls for science. Or at least some ESPN-esque research. Here are the stats:
Martin Scorsese has never busted the $15 mil mark on opening weekend. At least according to the stats I could find, and that includes every iconic movie he made that any of us could name.
Leonardo DiCaprio hit $30 mil for Catch Me if You Can, squeeked by $15 mil for The Beach, and hit $17 mil for Man in the Iron Mask. However, his record with Scorsese behind the helm - since they seem to be joined at the hip these days - is bad news on opening day.
Jack Nicholson’s draw is incredible - making over $43 mil for Anger Management. Seriously, Anger Management. An Adam Sandler movie. Jack pretty much surpasses $15 mil with everything.
Although the DiCaprio/Scorsese match hasn’t broken the mark yet, I think Nicholson will be the X factor to bring them OVER.
I think Employee of the Month will fail terribly even with Dane Cook’s popularity. Even if it rocks a decent opening weekend, it’ll fall by the wayside. TCM will do well, especially with the October mood.
Kudos on mentioning The Descent. I got to see it at AICN’s Butt-Numb-a-Thon last December, and really enjoyed the great scare. Nothing like a Lifetime Television movie meeting a great Creature Feature.
October 4th, 2006 at 9:59 am
I think that It has enough star power to draw over $20 million box ofice, but texas chainsaw may take away from that the first 1 did about $28 million so that may take away thats its biggest competition but regardless i say over.
October 5th, 2006 at 7:47 pm
OK, I think this is an easy call. It will go OVER $15 million.
Only Guardian and Open Season will have more screens. Take that with the current 96% rating at RT, and the fact that I have seen NOTHING bad about this movie. Then you have the cast, Leo, Damon, Jack, Marky Mark, Alec, Martin, all under Scorsese’s direction? It’s a no brainer. Also consider that The last Marty movies may have underperformed, they have been period pieces, this is present day, which I am sure will help the BO.
I even saw someone predict 40+ to open, I doubt that, but I think it will do well.
OVER
October 6th, 2006 at 11:02 am
Even though I hate going with the crowd, the movie is too good to say under. OVER
October 6th, 2006 at 1:34 pm
I cast like this is good for 15 million easy. Scorsese is good for it as well. And the reviews have been stellar. I think Brian’s review alone will get it an extra seven thousand or so!
Over, and hard core. I say it tops twenty million.
October 12th, 2006 at 11:09 pm
[...] Last week’s Over/Under was a doozie, with The Departed absolutely dominating at the Box Office. The target, $15 million. The Bostonian crime drama said “no problem” as it rolled its way to a $26 million dollar weekend and a 93% fresh rating on the Tomatometer over at Rottentomatoes.com. What more can I say? There was much competition, but it was pretty much a blow out. Here is the Top 5 from last week: [...]