Box Office
Weekly Over/Under: Can Jackass stay offensive against The Guardian?
Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on September 28, 2006
Allow me to step up onto my soapbox for a moment and bask in the glory of actually winning a Weekly Over/Under despite going against the general consensus. Allow me to bring Cole Abaius up onto the soapbox as well, and share it as a team victory…
Give us a moment to savor it…
Alright, that is enough basking, lets get back into the swing of things. Last Week’s Over/Under was a very deceptive situation, with the box office struggling overall in recent weeks and some relatively strong releases still lurking about. It was very tough to asses the level of success a film such as Jackass: Number Two would have, so when we asked whether it would clear the $20 million mark on opening weekend, it was easy for so many to jump on the “Under†bus. But thanks to the male 13-25 demographic (half of whom had to use fake IDs to get in), Jackass plowed through its competition, raking in a dominating $29 million! Oh the humanity! Here are the exact results:
1. Jackass: Number Two (review) - $29 million
2. Jet Li’s Fearless (review) - $10.5 million
3. Gridiron Gang (review) - $9.5 million
4. Flyboys - $6 million
5. Everyone’s Hero - $4.7 million
Last Week’s Bids (current record):
Neil Miller, Over (2-2)
Brian Gibson, Under (3-1)
Chris Beaumont, Under (3-1)
BobbyQuickDraw, Under (3-1)
Cole Abaius, Over (1-3)
Matthew Alexander, DNP (2-0)
Look at those records beginning to even out! It looks like Cole’s math finally pays off for the both of us. Enough said, let’s move onto this week’s challenge.
This Week’s Over/Under: Will The Guardian clear $15 million on its opening weekend?
The Analysis: Who can resist Ashton Kutcher and Kevin Costner in an action flick? I know I can. This film looks like The Perfect Storm meets Jarhead, but may end up with too much Punk’d attitude. Initial reviews have been positive though (our own Matt Alexander dished out a C+), and there is a strong marketing campaign behind it thanks to being a child of The Walt Disney Company. Taking that all into consideration, the film could stand very well on its own… But there is one problem: it has to compete with Jackass: Number Two. Jackass was a big surprise to some last week as audiences just ate it up. Jet Li’s Fearless also had a great first weekend. In fact, only Gridiron Gang and Everyone’s Hero survived in the Top 5, showing that audience are not sticking with films after they have been out for a few weeks. The question is, will Jackass be the exception to that trend?
My Bid: The more mature crowds have been yearning for a decent action flick, and while this one may disappoint them, its trailer will draw them in. Kutcher and Costner are not big draws anymore on their own, but together they should have a good showing. I will take The Guardian to go Over $15 million this weekend, but not by much.
There has been a lot of great discussion over the past few weeks, hopefully this week is much of the same. Feel free to post your bid below! And for more in-depth conversation around this and any other film related topic, don’t forget to visit the Film School Rejects Forum.
Read more articles by Neil Miller
6 Comments
September 28th, 2006 at 9:54 pm
Tough call. I’m going over, but not by much. Jackass II is going to eat into a lot of the same demographic, and the movie isn’t sensational. We’re also well out of the summer season.
But I think it will just slip through.
September 28th, 2006 at 11:44 pm
I’m thinking Guardian and Open Season will go over Jackass Number Two. Those films are getting pushed hard and I have faith they will step up. I don’t see Jackass pulling a lot of repeat business, and I suspect most who really wanted to see it, saw it last week. It will place third with around 12 mill.
September 29th, 2006 at 3:05 am
Under, Ashton Kutcher is a tool
September 30th, 2006 at 9:36 pm
Friday estimates have Open Season at number 1, Guardian at 2, Jackass at 3.
October 2nd, 2006 at 4:22 am
I’m late on the uptake here, but I can assure you that I haven’t kept up with the numbers all weekend as I had to rearrange my sock drawer and watch my front door to make sure no one knocked on it.
I don’t even want to vote at this point though, on these movies that I care absolutely nothing about. I only feel numb after seeing the brilliant mind behind The Fugitive haven’t to deal with Ashton Kutcher, a male model who couldn’t act his way out of a Funion bag.
I’ll have to say Jackass2 doesn’t make the cut again this weekend. I might have had it at grossing something $160 mil, but I think that will happen in $1 mil increments over the next 140 or so weekends.
It will be the longest running movie on the number 36 spot on the top gross list.
As for The Guardian? Way Under. It’s probably got some sort of message about hanging tough or not quitting, and the average American movie-goer hates that preachy kind of crap.
Under,
Cole
October 4th, 2006 at 12:57 am
[...] Last week’s box office reminded me of the movie Fight Club when Ed Norton beats the crap out of himself; it was Ashton Kutcher v. Ashton Kutcher. And guess what, they both won! Kutcher’s animated foley, Open Season hit hard at number 1, raking in a very solid $23.6 million and The Guardian, in which he stars with the ever elder Kevin Costner, brought in $18 million. The Guardian was the subject of last week’s Over/Under as it went over the target of $15 million. A solid week all around for the box office, let’s look at how the rest of the Top 5 shaped up: [...]