Over/Under: Beerfest goes flat

Posted by Neil Miller (neil@filmschoolrejects.com) on August 28, 2006

Here is a little series that can be considered new to Film School Rejects, but not so new to my personal site, The Columbus Movie Guy. The concept was born out of my love of placing bets on movies and what they will do at the Box Office each weekend. For a while now, myself and a few friends have been making “Over/Under” style bets to see who knows more about Box Office business. Now I have decided to bring it over to Film School Rejects and include some of my fellow critics in the game.

But before we get into this week’s Over/Under, lets take a look at what happened last week:

Last Week’s Bet: Would Broken Lizard’s Beerfest clear the $15 million mark at the Box Office?

My Bid: I took the under on this one, while I love Broken Lizard, I just didn’t think that they could compete with a Disney movie.

Here are the Box Office numbers from this weekend (via Box Office Mojo):

1. Invincible (review) - $17 million
2. Talladega Nights (review) - $8 million
3. Little Miss Sunshine (review) - $7.5 million
4. Beerfest (review) - $6.5 million
5. Accepted - $6.4 million

And look what we have hear, my first victory. Week 1 of the Over/Under saw Snakes on a Plane (review) drop the ball, but I have scored the victory in week 2 with Broken Lizard. It easily could have been predicted, though, as the more wholesome sports drama from Disney, Invincible, was an easy choice for families and sports fans alike this weekend. Beerfest also had to compete with Talladega Nights, which is still going very strong (up to $128 million total). Add into all of that the fact that Little Miss Sunshine’s buzz is continuing to grow in wide release, and you have a formula for Box Office disaster. It leads me to think that this was too easy, so let’s try something a bit more difficult this week…

This Week’s Over/Under: Will Crank break the $8 million mark?

The Analysis: I am a big fan of Jason Statham, and this movie looks like a lot of fun, but they really haven’t marketed it very well. The film looks to be along the lines of The Transporter, but with an intended increase in pace. On top of the lack of marketing, though, Crank is being put up against some stiff competition this weekend; Invincible will still have some running room, Talladega Nights doesn’t seem to want to slow down, and a lot of people are still just discovering Little Miss Sunshine. It will also face decent competition from horror remake The Wicker Man, which is the widest release of the weekend (2500+ Screens.)

My Bid: Even though I think it will be close, I think Crank will be under the $8 million mark this week, but not by much.

My Current Over/Under Record: 1-1 (and I am still mad about those Motherf*&%ing snakes…)

I will update this later in the day to reflect what other members of the Film School Rejects staff have to say. What do you think?

Technorati Tags: Box Office, Prediction, Recap, Business, Financials, Game, Bet, Gambling

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